1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on March 31 was 3190 yuan / ton, which was 3053.33 yuan / ton compared with the average price on the first day of the month, up 7.42% in total in the month, down 11.91% compared with the same period last year. On April 2, the LNG commodity index was 80.60, down 0.25 points from yesterday, down 61.43% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 17.07% from 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: as of April 2, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 3300 yuan / ton, Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 3220 yuan / ton, Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. Zizhou LNG plant was 3300 yuan / ton, Xinjiang Guanghui naomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) was 2950 yuan / ton, according to the data monitoring of business agency Right, the price of Qinshui Xinao LNG in Shanxi is 3450 yuan / ton, that of Zhongyuan green energy natural gas Co., Ltd. in Shaanxi is 3290 yuan / ton, that of Dazhou Huixin Energy Co., Ltd. is 3400 yuan / ton, and that of Qinghua LNG in Xinjiang is 3700 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: in March, domestic LNG rose continuously, becoming a little red in the collective decline of many energy commodities. In the first ten days, the domestic LNG market after the previous days of price reduction and traffic improvement, the delivery of liquid plants is gradually smooth. With the majority of downstream manufacturers returning to work, the demand has increased, providing support for the upward price of liquid, the liquid plants have obvious psychology of pushing the price, the domestic LNG market continues to rise, and the upward trend starts to slow down in the middle of the year. Since 15th, heating has been stopped in many places in the north, urban pipeline gas supply has been decreasing, and demand growth has slowed down, while LNG manufacturers’ operating rate has increased, the situation of market supply exceeding demand is still the same, the rise of liquid price lacks practical support, and the price has started to fall back. At the same time, the price of liquefied gas has declined significantly, and LNG users have begun to favor LPG with lower price. The price of imported gas has fallen continuously, seizing the domestic LNG market, and the price of domestic gas is subject to multiple constraints, which is vulnerable to fluctuations. In the late ten days, thanks to the national high-speed free policy, the demand for LNG trucks in Northwest China increased, the market trading atmosphere improved, the liquid price in some areas rose by taking advantage of the trend, and the rising mentality in areas with low price in the early stage was strong, but the rising trend was relatively moderate. Towards the end of the month, the market gradually recovered steadily, with little fluctuation, the downstream enterprises basically resumed production, the demand increased, and the liquid price in some areas was small Most of the prices are consolidation oriented and wait and see. As a whole, LNG market in March showed an upward trend of shock, and there is a risk of falling in the future.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, the price of bulk commodities in the list of energy sector rose one commodity month on month, with LNG (7.42%) rising. There are 15 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 13 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 81.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 57.34%), Brent crude oil (- 48.93%) and liquefied gas (- 26.85%). The average rise and fall of this month was – 19.01%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the LNG analyst of business association: in April, heating in the northern region began to end one after another. As the heating demand in the downstream of natural gas decreased gradually, the LNG market in China gradually entered the off-season. In addition, at present, the imported gas continuously gave way to the domestic LNG market, resulting in a large shipment pressure and high inventory of liquid plants. It is expected that LNG will still have a downward forecast in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

In March 2020, the crude benzene market continued to decline. The factory price in North China was 4231.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2668.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 36.94%.

On March 30, crude benzene commodity index was 41.79, unchanged from yesterday, down 68.30% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 6.47% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: Crude Benzol market continued to decline in March 2020. Crude benzol market fell at the beginning of the month due to the sharp decline of crude oil and the continuous decline of pure benzene price. Around the middle of the year, the demand for downstream products of pure benzene has always been soft, the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene has been continuously lowered, the domestic market has fallen, and crude benzene has been driven downward. In the middle and late ten days, the situation in foreign countries was not optimistic. The external market of pure benzene fell to a low level. Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene was reduced to 2900 yuan / ton, which was lower than 5950 yuan / ton before the Spring Festival. The crude benzene market has always followed the trend of pure benzene, and the monthly decline of crude benzene market reached 36.94%.

3、 Trend Forecast:

Crude oil fundamentals are weak. Although the United States proposes economic stimulus plan, overseas situation is not optimistic. Oil prices continue to be under pressure. The operating rate of aniline styrene in the downstream decreased, and the pure benzene inventory in the port area was high and the supply was sufficient. The demand of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises is weak, and it is expected that the aftermarket atmosphere of crude benzene market will be empty.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: maleic anhydride market fell sharply in March

According to the data of business agency, the average price of maleic anhydride as of March 31 was 6100.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up and down by – 17.19% compared with 7366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The maleic anhydride commodity index on March 30th was 61.70, down 2.83 points from yesterday, down 50.11% from the highest point 123.67 (2017-12-26) in the cycle, and up 9.85% from the lowest point 56.17 on 02 / 16 / 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the market price of maleic anhydride continued to decline in March, and maleic anhydride enterprises resumed work in March. The market supply increased, but the demand recovered slowly, and the price of maleic anhydride continued to decline. At present, the trading volume of maleic anhydride is general, and the demand for procurement is the main one. The middlemen and the downstream have a strong wait-and-see mood for the future.

Industrial chain: international crude oil continued to fall sharply in March. At present, the downstream unsaturated resin recovery is slow and the terminal demand is general. According to the monitoring of business association, at present, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has declined significantly, some units have been shut down, and the price of the whole crude benzene industry chain has fallen sharply. At present, the price of hydrogenated benzene in East China is 2600-2700 yuan / ton. The supply of n-butane is limited, and it is stable at present, and it is expected to decline in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the maleic anhydride product analyst of the business association, at present, the maleic anhydride market is expected to decline in April due to the limited trading volume, weak upstream cost support, limited downstream demand, rigid demand for procurement, and slow resumption of the resin industry chain.