In February, the hexafluoropropylene market operated weakly and steadily. As of February 28th, the benchmark price of hexafluoropropylene for Shengyishe was 36350.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.36% compared to the beginning of this month (36850.00 yuan/ton).

The market recovery after the holiday is slow, and prices are slightly chaotic. The price of raw material trichloromethane continues to rise, with an overall increase of 2.11% within 7 days. The high cost of raw materials has led to cost pressures. As of February 29th, the benchmark price of trichloromethane in Shengyishe was 2450.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.52% compared to the beginning of this month (2300.00 yuan/ton).

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst predicts that in March, the hexafluoropropylene market will be under cost pressure and prices will remain strong. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

In February, the market for butadiene rubber saw a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13230 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.95% from the beginning of the month at 12370 yuan/ton.

After the holiday, the external price of butadiene has risen, driven by the increase in supply prices of production enterprises. Under the dual positive impact, the butadiene market has a strong upward atmosphere, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has significantly increased; During the holiday period, downstream tire production was low and demand was weak. After the holiday, downstream tire production increased, providing certain support for butadiene rubber; In February, the overall production of butadiene rubber decreased, and the supply of butadiene rubber tightened compared to the previous period; Driven by comprehensive factors, the factory prices of enterprises have increased, and market quotations have significantly increased, leading to a rise in the market price of butadiene rubber. As of February 29th, the mainstream report of the butadiene rubber market in East China is 13100~13500 yuan/ton; Private polybutadiene rubber costs 13100~13300 yuan/ton

In February, the overall production of butadiene rubber decreased, and the supply of butadiene rubber tightened compared to the previous period. There are still plans for maintenance of the butadiene rubber unit in March, and the supply of butadiene rubber is expected to remain tight in the later stage.

In February, the price of butadiene increased significantly, and the cost support for butadiene rubber strengthened. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of February 29th, the price of butadiene was 11095 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.72% from the beginning of the month’s 9756 yuan/ton.

Demand side: During the holiday season, downstream tire production was low, and the demand side was weak. After the holiday, downstream tire production increased, providing certain support for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of February 23, 2024, the production capacity of all steel tires in Shandong region was 4.3%, and the production capacity of semi steel tires in China was 6.4%.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that raw material prices will continue to rise, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will strengthen. Some equipment will be shut down for maintenance, while there are still other maintenance plans in the future. The pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber is expected to further decrease, and downstream tire production will increase compared to the holiday period. Overall, the spot market for butadiene rubber will continue to rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic ethanol market saw a narrow decline in February. From February 1st to 29th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers dropped from 6425 yuan/ton to 6287 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.14% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 12.5%.

At the beginning of the month, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, many traders have left the market, and there is not much change in the prices of production enterprises. At present, the demand is average, the cost support for ethanol is insufficient, and domestic ethanol prices are weak, resulting in slow shipments. During the Spring Festival in some regions, the equipment did not shut down and production was normal, with limited external sales. Prices continued to weaken after the Spring Festival, and the later snowfall weather affected the delivery speed. The domestic ethanol market continued to be weak.

On the cost side, corn prices bottomed out and rebounded in February. The impact of policies and snowfall in the north have led to a narrow increase in corn prices. Under the influence of policies, corn prices are expected to continue to rise in March. Further observation is needed to determine whether the increase in temperature will affect the progress of grain sales. The short-term cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there was no adjustment observed during the ethanol maintenance in February, and production remained stable with slight adjustments within the region. After the Spring Festival, the main production areas have high inventory levels, with short-term release of inventory being the main focus. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, the focus of the ethyl acetate market declined in February, and the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity decreased significantly. The demand for Baijiu has picked up due to the Spring Festival holiday. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

Market forecast, cost bearish, with many ethyl acetate factories maintaining normal production in March. Short term recovery of large factory facilities. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may consolidate in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of February 29, 2024, the reference factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 3833 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 3900 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.71%.

In February, the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a weak downward trend. In the early stage of the Spring Festival, the market for dicarboxylic acid had light trading, and downstream demand and stocking were average. The market was weak and mainly operated to maintain stability. After returning from the holiday, the overall boost in the dimethyl carbonate market is not good, and the focus of negotiations on dimethyl carbonate has slightly decreased. As of February 29th, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market price reference is around 3600-4100 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market of Dimethyl Carbonate

In terms of demand: Prior to the holiday, downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate has gradually ended, with weak support on the demand side. After the holiday, downstream production of dimethyl carbonate has been low, and downstream demand has recovered slowly. There have been fewer new orders on the market. Overall, the support provided by the demand side for dimethyl carbonate in February is also insufficient.

In terms of supply: In February, the overall supply and demand transmission of dimethyl carbonate was slow, with slow market shipments before the holiday and some factories having accumulated inventory after the holiday. There is a certain supply pressure on the supply side of dimethyl carbonate, which makes it difficult for the supply side to provide effective support to the market.

Analysis of future market trends

At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the market is relatively light, and there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the market for dimethyl carbonate will mainly adjust in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the PVC spot market prices in February first fell and then rose, and overall, the prices increased. On February 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5574 yuan/ton. On February 29th, the average price was 5596 yuan/ton, with a monthly price increase of 0.39%.

2、 Market analysis

In February, the spot market price of PVC fell first and then rose, and overall, the price increased. In the first half of this month, the spot market price of PVC fell. The market inquiry enthusiasm is average, and the market transactions are light near the holiday. The market has basically stagnated during the mid Spring Festival holiday. In the latter half of the year, the spot market prices remained stable and increased after the opening of the year. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable, while the prices of traders are relatively flexible. Downstream markets are more wait-and-see, just in need of goods. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5300-5850 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures closed slightly lower on February 28th. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $78.54 per barrel, a decrease of $0.33 or 0.4%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.15 per barrel, a decrease of $0.41 or 0.5%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region fell in February. On February 1st, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped from 3000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2900 yuan/ton on February 29th, a decrease of 0.55%. Production companies had high inventory levels before and after the Spring Festival, and many companies provided subsidies and discounts to actively ship out. In the future, the calcium carbide market has bottomed out. Considering that enterprise inventories are still at a medium to high level and prices remain relatively stable, as the speed of outbound shipments increases and downstream demand gradually improves, the calcium carbide market is steadily improving.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to PVC analysts from Business Society, as downstream product companies continue to start production, the market will see a recovery in demand and an improvement in on-site demand. The spot market prices will remain stable with some increases, but it is still difficult to trade high priced goods. It is expected that the PVC market will mainly adjust within the short term.