According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall trend of the domestic PTA spot market in June showed a fluctuating upward trend. As of June 29th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 5084 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.4% from the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, PTA maintenance units were successively restarted, and the supply continued to increase. However, crude oil remained strong, and PTA slightly fell. In the middle of the month, crude oil prices rose significantly, boosting PTA prices. In the latter half of the year, crude oil experienced a sharp decline, and the PTA market followed suit.

Looking at the future, in terms of supply, the current industry operating rate is around 78%, and there are plans to restart in the future, which will increase supply.
The crude oil market has experienced significant fluctuations in oil prices due to the situation in the Middle East. The current geopolitical situation has significantly eased, and market concerns have been alleviated. Therefore, support for oil prices has weakened, but there are still many uncertainties. As of June 26th, the settlement price of international crude oil futures for WTI crude oil futures in the United States in August was $65.24 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in August was $67.73 per barrel.
The downstream polyester industry is experiencing a decline in load, and some short fiber factories plan to reduce production and undergo maintenance after July. It is expected that the industry’s supply will significantly decline. Terminal textiles have entered the off-season of consumption, with insufficient order follow-up. In addition, recent fluctuations in raw material prices have led to relatively cautious procurement, maintaining a focus on essential needs procurement.
Business analysts believe that the market is still concerned about the fragility of the geopolitical situation, insufficient cost support, and weak supply and demand fundamentals under the traditional consumption off-season. Therefore, the PTA market will mainly consolidate weakly in July.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in June, the aniline market first rose and then stabilized, with the mainstream domestic price reaching 7700-7900 yuan/ton as of the 20th. Recently, the market has been affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with crude oil soaring and pure benzene on the production raw material side experiencing a wide increase. Under the linkage of prices, the price of aniline has risen. After the rise, downstream demand entered the market, and aniline prices stabilized.

On the cost side: International oil prices have strengthened due to macroeconomic favorable conditions and geopolitical deterioration, with crude oil prices fluctuating widely. Pure benzene production has rebounded, and the supply is relatively wide. The pure benzene market has followed the trend of crude oil prices to rise widely and then fluctuated slightly.
Market forecast: In the short term, the raw material pure benzene will maintain a high volatility trend, while aniline will move smoothly with little inventory pressure. It is expected that aniline will maintain a high volatility trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 9th to 13th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2331 yuan/ton to 2480 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.39% during the period, a month on month increase of 1.07%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.12%. The domestic methanol market is mainly strong, with production enterprises and port quotations increasing to varying degrees.

As of the close on June 12th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2509, opened at 2295 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2307 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2280 yuan/ton. It closed at 2290 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, or 0.44%. The trading volume is 548300 lots, the open position is 809827, and the daily increase is -17645.
On the cost side, the strong supply and weak demand in the coal market continue to weaken the cost support for methanol, and the price decline still exerts pressure on methanol prices. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, formaldehyde: Formaldehyde plants are mostly maintained steadily with abundant supply, and downstream customers receive goods according to their own needs. The market’s buying and selling sentiment is flat, and the formaldehyde market mostly maintains shipment according to orders, with limited price fluctuations. Dimethyl ether: The production of dimethyl ether enterprises is relatively low, and most enterprises mainly sell inventory. Downstream demand is severely constrained, and the market supply and demand are weak. Most downstream products have little fluctuation in methanol demand, and the impact on methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, the recovery of equipment exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of June 12th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $321.50-322.50 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 79.00-80.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 275.50-276.50 euros/ton.
Future forecast, currently the main focus is on destocking. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will experience fluctuations and consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of pure benzene first rose and then fell this week. On Tuesday, the price of pure benzene was 5795.33 yuan/ton, and on Friday, it was 5802 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.12% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: This week, the market price of pure benzene first rose and then fell, with a slight decrease overall. The trading atmosphere on the exchange is still mainly focused on filling short positions. The shift in focus of downstream styrene spot negotiations has had a certain impact on the pure benzene market. The demand for purchasing gas is average, and the price of local refineries in Shandong has been lowered to stimulate short supply and purchase of goods at low prices. The overall market is currently in a stalemate.
This week, Sinopec lowered its price by 100 yuan/ton to 5850 yuan/ton.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On June 5th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.37 per barrel, an increase of $0.52 or 0.8%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August was $65.34 per barrel, an increase of $0.48 or 0.7%.
Pure benzene trading: On June 5th, FOB Korea fell by 3 to 702 US dollars/ton, CFR China fell by 2 to 720 US dollars/ton, FOB Rotterdam stabilized at 672 US dollars/ton, and FOB USG stabilized at 248 US cents/gallon.
Overall forecast: In the short term, the pure benzene market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations and consolidation, with a wait-and-see attitude towards cost and demand news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been running weakly this month, with an average market price of 1290 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 1275 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has dropped by 1.19%, a year-on-year decrease of 46.34%. On May 28th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 84.69, a decrease of 0.03 points from yesterday, setting a new historical low for the cycle, and a decrease of 64.09% from the highest point of 235.84 points on November 10, 2021. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1300-1450 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1400-1600 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in May. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1408 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1386 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.56% compared to the same period last year, which was 35.83%.
Business analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, with the overall weak performance of upstream raw material soda ash in March. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this month (5.1-5.30), with an average market price of 261240 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 251610 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of 3.89%.

The sudden introduction of unexpected tariff policies by the United States has led to a significant drop in tin prices. Subsequently, in April, the Bisie mining area in the Democratic Republic of Congo announced the resumption of production, further exacerbating the downward trend in tin prices.
On the supply side, the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar continues to decrease, and the tight supply situation at the upstream mining end has not yet been alleviated. Although the artificial intelligence boom once drove the growth of the downstream semiconductor industry, this growth trend has gradually slowed down in recent times. At present, the impact of US tariff policies on market prices is gradually weakening. However, international macro policies may quickly adjust and change in the future. Against this backdrop, tin prices, which have seen significant increases in the previous period, may exhibit a wide range of fluctuations.
On the consumer side, after the end of the May Day holiday, some downstream processing enterprises in the industry chain have started to resume work and production, and the demand for low-priced inventory replenishment in the market has been released to a certain extent. However, transactions for high priced goods still appear relatively quiet. At the end of the month, tin prices plummeted, and the trading activity in the spot market significantly increased. After experiencing a sharp decline in tin prices, some companies seized the opportunity to launch procurement actions. With the further decline in prices, the purchasing willingness of downstream and end enterprises has significantly increased, and they have made essential purchases according to actual needs and appropriately replenished inventory.
Overall, there are still hidden concerns on the demand side, that is, in the context of global trade conflicts, the global economic growth rate is facing the risk of decline, which brings great uncertainty to the demand for tin. Although the resumption of production in the mining sector and trade conflicts between major countries have had a negative impact on tin prices, the strong performance of the current actual demand side and the shortage of tin ore supply can still provide some support for tin prices.

The domestic fluorite price trend continued to decline in May, with an average price of 3493.75 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 5.73% from the beginning price of 3706.25 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 8.21%.

Supply side: Normal operation, sufficient spot supply of fluorite
The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has increased. Upstream mining is tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. However, as the temperature rises, northern enterprises gradually start operating, and the supply of fluorite enterprises in the field has increased. The lack of active procurement has led to sufficient spot goods in the field, and fluorite inventory in the field has increased. The fluorite market continued to decline in May.
Demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid has declined, and the refrigerant market is still acceptable
In May, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid declined, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China was negotiated at 11200-11700 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. They are not actively purchasing raw fluorite, and downstream merchants have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Both buyers and sellers have weak expectations for the future market due to poor demand digestion. In June, the guidance price of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was once again lowered, and the downward trend of fluorite prices is difficult to change due to this news.
The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal industry is still promising, and the terminal policy of the refrigerant industry is being strengthened. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of high price procurement is relatively slow, but the industry inventory is transmitting in a positive and orderly manner. Due to high prices, the enthusiasm for stocking up in the terminal industry is low, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market is average, while the fluorite market continues to decline.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. However, in some areas, the lack of active fluorite procurement has led to an increase in inventory. In addition, downstream resistance to high prices is severe, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises mainly purchase on demand, with no actual increase in demand. In addition, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is low. Overall, the fluorite market price is prone to decline but difficult to rise in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 25th, the average price of acetic acid was 2700 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton or 1.12% compared to the price of 2670 yuan/ton on May 19th.
This week, the acetic acid market has been running strongly, and enterprise quotations have risen. On the supply side, the acetic acid plant is operating steadily, and the market capacity utilization rate remains high. From a regional perspective, most enterprises have lower inventories, and manufacturers have a clear intention to increase prices. Downstream inventory is not high, and market purchasing sentiment is good. The focus of acetic acid transactions has shifted upward.

As of May 25th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:
Region /May 19th /May 23rd /Rise and fall
South China region /2525 yuan/ton /2550 yuan/ton / 25
North China region /2540 yuan/ton /2565 yuan/ton / 25
Shandong region /2570 yuan/ton /2580 yuan/ton / 10
Jiangsu region /2440 yuan/ton /2460 yuan/ton / 20
Zhejiang region /2640 yuan/ton /2660 yuan/ton / 20
The upstream methanol market is running weakly. From May 19th to 25th, the average price in the domestic market decreased from 2362 yuan/ton to 2303 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 2.49%. The expectation of incremental supply in the methanol market has strongly suppressed prices. Although downstream external mining and downstream equipment start-up have provided some support to the market, the overall support is weak, and the domestic methanol market is under pressure to decline.
The downstream acetic anhydride market is operating weakly. On May 25th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 4442.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.55% compared to the price of 4512.50 yuan/ton on May 19th. The upstream acetic acid market is relatively strong, the cost of acetic anhydride is increasing, downstream demand is insufficient, the market trading atmosphere is light, the profit of acetic anhydride is decreasing, and the price of acetic anhydride is weakly declining during the cycle.
According to the forecast for the future, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that currently, there is no pressure on the inventory of acetic acid enterprises, and the manufacturers’ mentality is strong. At the same time, some domestic factories have maintenance plans to release, and the utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity will be reduced. Downstream demand will follow steadily. Under the guidance of the news, it is expected that the acetic acid market will be steadily adjusted upwards in the short term, and specific attention will be paid to changes in equipment and downstream follow-up situations.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the recent upward trend of styrene has ended, and the price has fluctuated and fallen back. Firstly, the favorable conditions for raw material pure benzene have been exhausted, leading to an increase in equipment load. Coupled with the sustained high supply from South Korea, there is a significant pressure to reduce inventory, resulting in a downward shift in the price center of pure benzene. Secondly, the high inventory of styrene downstream and weak demand, coupled with the early completion of maintenance for some facilities, have further suppressed the rise in styrene prices due to increased supply. In the short term, the raw material pure benzene is weak and difficult to change, and it is expected that the styrene market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 12th to 16th, the average price of BDO in China remained at 7950 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.25% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.81%. With the restart of some facilities and the increase in industry capacity utilization, supply side support has weakened, exacerbating the wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Downstream urgent orders are being followed up, and the transmission of industrial chain costs is not smooth, suppressing the trend of pressure. Supply and demand negotiation game, BDO market situation is operating in a wait-and-see manner.
On the supply side, although some facilities in Xinjiang have been shut down, the early maintenance equipment has restarted and increased production, resulting in an industry capacity utilization rate of over 50%. The positive support from the supply side has weakened, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the market has increased. But Xinhua’s equipment has a maintenance plan in mid to late May, and the supply side support may improve again. The supply side of BDO is affected by negative factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market is operating steadily, but production enterprises are experiencing production restrictions under the pressure of electricity costs, leading to unstable supply. The domestic methanol market has been fluctuating and consolidating. As of 10:00 am on May 16th, the domestic methanol Taicang price was 2426 yuan/ton. The price adjustment and operation of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol have a mixed impact on the cost of BDO.
On the demand side, the operating load of downstream PTMEG and PU slurries has increased, but the capacity utilization rate of PBT and TPU industries has decreased, resulting in an overall increase in raw material consumption, but not as much as the supply side increment, leading to an increase in supply and demand pressure. Under the negative impact of insufficient follow-up on terminal demand in multiple downstream industries such as PTMEG, PBT, GBL-NMP, PBAT, market prices have fluctuated at low levels, and industry profit margins have been compressed. Therefore, there is a strong bargaining sentiment towards raw materials. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Market forecast: With an increase in maintenance equipment, there will be more favorable support from the supply side, and the supply side will maintain a stable market mentality. Downstream maintenance requires follow-up, and under cost pressure, raw material prices are severely suppressed. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market has limited volatility.