According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 21st to 25th, MTBE prices rose from 5020 yuan/ton to 5107 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.74% during the period, a month on month decrease of 4.31%, and a year-on-year decrease of 24.89%. The domestic MTBE market has experienced sporadic adjustments, with some manufacturers exporting to ports and a significant decrease in export volume. Downstream businesses have a certain demand for purchasing, and the overall transaction atmosphere is still acceptable.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are that OPEC+may continue to maintain a significant increase in production in September, coupled with concerns about US tariff policies, putting pressure on the oil market. As of July 24th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the September contract was $69.18 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, international oil prices may decline, while a new round of retail price limits for refined oil products is hovering on the brink of being lowered. It is difficult to find substantial positive news to boost the refined oil market. Intermediate traders place rational orders, and downstream users maintain median inventory for procurement and sales. Therefore, refinery shipments and volume growth remain the focus of operations. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: The short-term domestic MTBE supply side is affected by favorable factors.
As of the close on July 24th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $8.66 per ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $651.14-653.14 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $16.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $876.99-877.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $1.21/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $714.66-715.02/ton (201.79-201.89 cents/gallon).
Future forecast: Currently, raw material prices are operating at a high level, and cost support is relatively abundant. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market may remain strong.

1、 Price trend
According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of July 18th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China was 7233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% compared to the same period last week. The cyclohexane market has remained stable, with no significant changes and a slight decline in price. Currently, downstream demand is insufficient, and the driving force for price increases is weak. Demand replenishment is the main focus, and the spot market supply is sufficient. In the short term, supply-demand balance is the main operation.
2、 Market analysis
At present, the focus of negotiations in the domestic cyclohexane market is running steadily, and downstream purchasing willingness is average. Downstream replenishment is mainly based on demand, and the negotiation atmosphere is not positive. Currently, cyclohexane inventory pressure still exists, inventory is running at a high level, spot supply is sufficient, market consumption is slow, and contract customers are mainly in urgent need of procurement. Downstream procurement lacks enthusiasm, and the overall cyclohexane market is under pressure. Currently, the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at around 7400 yuan/ton, and the cyclohexane market price is weak this week.
Upstream: As of July 18th, the pure benzene market has experienced sluggish transactions, with prices fluctuating between 5750-5850 yuan/ton during the cycle. Low/high-end prices have fallen by 20/60 yuan/ton compared to the previous cycle. In the previous cycle, Shandong’s pure benzene had good transactions for five consecutive days, and downstream inventories have been established. This cycle, pure benzene in East China and the market have weakened, and downstream Shandong has actively suppressed prices. Local refining shipments have encountered difficulties for several consecutive days, with transaction volumes hovering at low levels of 100-1500 tons. Due to shipment obstacles, local refining inventories have been affected, and prices have continued to decline. After that, low-end transactions have improved to some extent, and it is expected that weekend transactions may turn warm up.
Downstream: As of July 18th, the cyclohexanone market in South China has been consolidating and operating. Downstream purchases are made as needed, and the supply of spot goods in the market is stable. Currently, the cyclohexanone market is mainly operating steadily.
3、 Future forecast
The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the downstream demand for cyclohexane is generally moderate, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will remain stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has risen this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 831 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 851 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.41% and a year-on-year increase of 4.55%. On July 10th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 773 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 44.79% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 29.26% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained strong this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 790-880 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 830-920 yuan/ton in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 2700-2800 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. From the perspective of the Shandong region, the prices of liquid alkali purchased by major downstream enterprises have increased, and the prices of liquid alkali in the region have risen. Alumina is mostly purchased on demand, while non aluminum receiving is mainly purchased on demand.
Business analysts believe that in the near future, caustic soda prices have been operating strongly, and domestic downstream demand is still acceptable, supporting the firm operation of caustic soda prices. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a strong operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 30th to July 4th, the price of MTBE first rose from 5097 yuan/ton and then fell to 5132 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.69% during the period, a month on month increase of 2.14%, and a year-on-year decrease of 21.79%. The domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations, which are consolidated with changes in the crude oil market.

In terms of cost and crude oil, the rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the suspension of Iran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and concerns about geopolitical instability in the market. Adding to this, the traditional peak consumption season in the United States is still ongoing, providing support for oil prices. As of July 3rd, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the September contract was $68.80 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, as summer approaches and businesses travel more, there is still some positive support for gasoline terminal demand. The MTBE demand side is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side: After the construction of Huayi Chemical Plant, the resource supply will further increase. Maoming Shihua has plans to start construction, while observing the production time of some new plants such as Kaiyi New Materials. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on July 3rd, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by 0.86 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at 659.4-661.4 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $0.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $858.49-858.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $9.98/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $691-691.36/ton (195.11-195.21 cents/gallon).
Future forecast: Currently, raw material prices are operating at a high level, and cost pressure remains significant. After the construction of Huayi Chemical Plant, the supply of resources has further increased. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market situation may weaken and consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30th, the price of isooctanol was 7550 yuan/ton, which has stabilized compared to the price of 7550 yuan/ton on June 1st. In June, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated, with many isooctanol enterprises undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the operating rate of isooctanol equipment, a reduction in isooctanol production, and a decrease in isooctanol supply; Downstream plasticizer companies have seen a decrease in production, leading to a decrease in demand for isooctanol and a double drop in supply and demand. As a result, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and stabilized.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and consolidate
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30th, the DOP price was 8259.17 yuan/ton, fluctuating and consolidating compared to the June 1st DOP price of 8250.83 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.10%. In June, DOP production decreased, and the operating rate of the plasticizer industry dropped below 60%. DOP prices remained stable at a high level, resulting in a decrease in plasticizer production. The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and stabilized, while phthalic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell. The cost support for plasticizers decreased, and plasticizer prices fluctuated and stabilized.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol product, in terms of demand, the equipment operation of plasticizer enterprises has decreased, the production of plasticizers has decreased, the demand for isooctanol is weak, and the support for isooctanol has weakened; In terms of supply, the operating rate of isooctanol enterprises has decreased to about 80%, resulting in a decrease in production and supply of isooctanol. In the future, with reduced supply and weak demand, the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and consolidate.

The asphalt market in Shandong started to rise and then fell. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of Jingbo Heavy Duty Asphalt # 70 in Shandong Province was 3675 yuan/ton on June 23, and the ex factory price in Shandong Province was 3670 yuan/ton on June 27. The mid week market price rose to 3760 yuan/ton.

The international geopolitical situation had a significant impact during the week, with crude oil fluctuating rapidly. The cost of asphalt market was greatly affected, and the asphalt market also followed the fluctuations of crude oil. In terms of demand, compared to the same period in previous years, prices are at a low level, and overall demand is slightly flat. The purchasing enthusiasm of middle and downstream users is average. With the arrival of the southern rainy season, the market is facing seasonal downward pressure.
From the perspective of Business Society, the international situation is unstable, and we will continue to pay attention to the impact of changes in crude oil costs on the asphalt market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall trend of the domestic PTA spot market in June showed a fluctuating upward trend. As of June 29th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 5084 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.4% from the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, PTA maintenance units were successively restarted, and the supply continued to increase. However, crude oil remained strong, and PTA slightly fell. In the middle of the month, crude oil prices rose significantly, boosting PTA prices. In the latter half of the year, crude oil experienced a sharp decline, and the PTA market followed suit.

Looking at the future, in terms of supply, the current industry operating rate is around 78%, and there are plans to restart in the future, which will increase supply.
The crude oil market has experienced significant fluctuations in oil prices due to the situation in the Middle East. The current geopolitical situation has significantly eased, and market concerns have been alleviated. Therefore, support for oil prices has weakened, but there are still many uncertainties. As of June 26th, the settlement price of international crude oil futures for WTI crude oil futures in the United States in August was $65.24 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in August was $67.73 per barrel.
The downstream polyester industry is experiencing a decline in load, and some short fiber factories plan to reduce production and undergo maintenance after July. It is expected that the industry’s supply will significantly decline. Terminal textiles have entered the off-season of consumption, with insufficient order follow-up. In addition, recent fluctuations in raw material prices have led to relatively cautious procurement, maintaining a focus on essential needs procurement.
Business analysts believe that the market is still concerned about the fragility of the geopolitical situation, insufficient cost support, and weak supply and demand fundamentals under the traditional consumption off-season. Therefore, the PTA market will mainly consolidate weakly in July.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in June, the aniline market first rose and then stabilized, with the mainstream domestic price reaching 7700-7900 yuan/ton as of the 20th. Recently, the market has been affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with crude oil soaring and pure benzene on the production raw material side experiencing a wide increase. Under the linkage of prices, the price of aniline has risen. After the rise, downstream demand entered the market, and aniline prices stabilized.

On the cost side: International oil prices have strengthened due to macroeconomic favorable conditions and geopolitical deterioration, with crude oil prices fluctuating widely. Pure benzene production has rebounded, and the supply is relatively wide. The pure benzene market has followed the trend of crude oil prices to rise widely and then fluctuated slightly.
Market forecast: In the short term, the raw material pure benzene will maintain a high volatility trend, while aniline will move smoothly with little inventory pressure. It is expected that aniline will maintain a high volatility trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 9th to 13th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2331 yuan/ton to 2480 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.39% during the period, a month on month increase of 1.07%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.12%. The domestic methanol market is mainly strong, with production enterprises and port quotations increasing to varying degrees.

As of the close on June 12th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2509, opened at 2295 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2307 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2280 yuan/ton. It closed at 2290 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, or 0.44%. The trading volume is 548300 lots, the open position is 809827, and the daily increase is -17645.
On the cost side, the strong supply and weak demand in the coal market continue to weaken the cost support for methanol, and the price decline still exerts pressure on methanol prices. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, formaldehyde: Formaldehyde plants are mostly maintained steadily with abundant supply, and downstream customers receive goods according to their own needs. The market’s buying and selling sentiment is flat, and the formaldehyde market mostly maintains shipment according to orders, with limited price fluctuations. Dimethyl ether: The production of dimethyl ether enterprises is relatively low, and most enterprises mainly sell inventory. Downstream demand is severely constrained, and the market supply and demand are weak. Most downstream products have little fluctuation in methanol demand, and the impact on methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, the recovery of equipment exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of June 12th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $321.50-322.50 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 79.00-80.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 275.50-276.50 euros/ton.
Future forecast, currently the main focus is on destocking. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will experience fluctuations and consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of pure benzene first rose and then fell this week. On Tuesday, the price of pure benzene was 5795.33 yuan/ton, and on Friday, it was 5802 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.12% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: This week, the market price of pure benzene first rose and then fell, with a slight decrease overall. The trading atmosphere on the exchange is still mainly focused on filling short positions. The shift in focus of downstream styrene spot negotiations has had a certain impact on the pure benzene market. The demand for purchasing gas is average, and the price of local refineries in Shandong has been lowered to stimulate short supply and purchase of goods at low prices. The overall market is currently in a stalemate.
This week, Sinopec lowered its price by 100 yuan/ton to 5850 yuan/ton.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On June 5th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.37 per barrel, an increase of $0.52 or 0.8%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August was $65.34 per barrel, an increase of $0.48 or 0.7%.
Pure benzene trading: On June 5th, FOB Korea fell by 3 to 702 US dollars/ton, CFR China fell by 2 to 720 US dollars/ton, FOB Rotterdam stabilized at 672 US dollars/ton, and FOB USG stabilized at 248 US cents/gallon.
Overall forecast: In the short term, the pure benzene market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations and consolidation, with a wait-and-see attitude towards cost and demand news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.