1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene in the Shandong region has fluctuated and risen this month. The market price fluctuated and fell in the first half of the year, then rose and fell in the middle, and rose sharply in the second half. On July 1st, the price was 5942 yuan/ton; On July 30th, the price was 6078.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.3% from the beginning of the month.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: Today, the domestic pure benzene market prices are mainly rising. The rise in crude oil prices and the upward trend in styrene and pure benzene futures have boosted confidence in the pure benzene market. Shandong’s local refining enterprises continue to increase their quotations, resulting in a high volume of transactions on the market and difficulty in finding low quotes. Overall, there are certain favorable macroeconomic policies, and the main operating units have raised their listing prices. It is expected that the trend of pure benzene will remain strong in the short term, and actual transactions are subject to discussion.
This month, Sinopec has raised the price of pure benzene by 50 yuan/ton to 6050 yuan/ton.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On July 29th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $69.21 per barrel, an increase of $2.50 or 3.7%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September was $72.51 per barrel, an increase of $2.47 or 3.5%. Concerns about fuel supply disruptions in Russia, coupled with the trade agreement reached between the United States and the European Union, have supported a continuous rise in oil prices.
On July 29th, FOB Korea rose by 7 to 745 US dollars per ton, while CFR China rose by 7 to 758 US dollars per ton. FOB Rotterdam fell 9 to $745 per ton, while FOB US Gulf remained stable at 279 cents per gallon.
Overall expectation: In the short term, the pure benzene market will continue to operate strongly, and we will wait and see on the cost and demand side news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

Price trend: first rising and then falling, dominated by supply and demand game
Rising at the beginning of the month (7.1-7.14):
Tightening supply: Some enterprises in Shandong have shut down for maintenance due to equipment failures, and the overall operating rate of the industry has dropped to around 70%. The market supply has decreased, and inventory is low.
Price increase: Downstream companies have slightly restocked in anticipation of price increases, driving the average price of bulk water in the Shandong market to 2237.5 yuan/ton, reaching a high point for the month with a growth rate of 6.04%.
Late fall (7.15-7.28):
Supply recovery: Parking facilities are gradually restarting, industry operating rates have rebounded to 75%, and market supply has increased.
Weak demand: Downstream consumers are resistant to high prices and only maintain essential purchases, resulting in accumulated inventory and price pressures leading to a decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 28th, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province has fallen to 2097 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59% for the month.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Device fluctuations dominate short-term market trends
Device dynamics: Due to unexpected maintenance at the beginning of the month, the supply was tight. In the later part of the month, as the device resumed, the supply pressure eased.
Inventory pressure: Low inventory supported price increases in the first half of the month, while weak demand in the second half led to inventory accumulation and suppressed prices.
Cost side: Raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine both fell, with insufficient support
Methanol: With loose supply and weak demand, prices have fallen. As of July 28th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2399 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.16% for the month.
Liquid chlorine: The demand recovery in the Shandong market is slow, and the center of gravity for liquid chlorine has shifted downwards.
Impact: Weakening cost support, narrowing profit margins for dichloromethane, and increased willingness of enterprises to lower prices for shipments.
On the demand side: seasonal suppression, with rigid procurement as the main focus
Traditional downstream (coatings, adhesives): Due to high temperatures, rainy seasons, and environmental inspections, the operating rate is low and demand is weak.
Refrigerant (R32): Both production and sales are strong, but the proportion of dichloromethane produced by the enterprise is high, and the increase in external procurement is limited, resulting in insufficient market pull.
Overall procurement model: Downstream suppliers tend to restock at low prices, with low acceptance of high prices, which suppresses the potential for price increases.
Outlook for the future: The supply-demand game may continue, or maintain a narrow range of fluctuations
It is expected that the supply-demand game will continue in August. If there is no significant improvement on the demand side, prices may continue to fluctuate weakly in a narrow range. If companies continue to reduce negative control volume, the downward trend may be delayed. Pay attention to the equipment situation, inventory changes, and raw material price trends of the enterprise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 21st to 25th, MTBE prices rose from 5020 yuan/ton to 5107 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.74% during the period, a month on month decrease of 4.31%, and a year-on-year decrease of 24.89%. The domestic MTBE market has experienced sporadic adjustments, with some manufacturers exporting to ports and a significant decrease in export volume. Downstream businesses have a certain demand for purchasing, and the overall transaction atmosphere is still acceptable.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are that OPEC+may continue to maintain a significant increase in production in September, coupled with concerns about US tariff policies, putting pressure on the oil market. As of July 24th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the September contract was $69.18 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, international oil prices may decline, while a new round of retail price limits for refined oil products is hovering on the brink of being lowered. It is difficult to find substantial positive news to boost the refined oil market. Intermediate traders place rational orders, and downstream users maintain median inventory for procurement and sales. Therefore, refinery shipments and volume growth remain the focus of operations. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: The short-term domestic MTBE supply side is affected by favorable factors.
As of the close on July 24th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $8.66 per ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $651.14-653.14 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $16.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $876.99-877.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $1.21/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $714.66-715.02/ton (201.79-201.89 cents/gallon).
Future forecast: Currently, raw material prices are operating at a high level, and cost support is relatively abundant. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market may remain strong.

1、 Price trend
According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of July 18th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China was 7233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% compared to the same period last week. The cyclohexane market has remained stable, with no significant changes and a slight decline in price. Currently, downstream demand is insufficient, and the driving force for price increases is weak. Demand replenishment is the main focus, and the spot market supply is sufficient. In the short term, supply-demand balance is the main operation.
2、 Market analysis
At present, the focus of negotiations in the domestic cyclohexane market is running steadily, and downstream purchasing willingness is average. Downstream replenishment is mainly based on demand, and the negotiation atmosphere is not positive. Currently, cyclohexane inventory pressure still exists, inventory is running at a high level, spot supply is sufficient, market consumption is slow, and contract customers are mainly in urgent need of procurement. Downstream procurement lacks enthusiasm, and the overall cyclohexane market is under pressure. Currently, the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at around 7400 yuan/ton, and the cyclohexane market price is weak this week.
Upstream: As of July 18th, the pure benzene market has experienced sluggish transactions, with prices fluctuating between 5750-5850 yuan/ton during the cycle. Low/high-end prices have fallen by 20/60 yuan/ton compared to the previous cycle. In the previous cycle, Shandong’s pure benzene had good transactions for five consecutive days, and downstream inventories have been established. This cycle, pure benzene in East China and the market have weakened, and downstream Shandong has actively suppressed prices. Local refining shipments have encountered difficulties for several consecutive days, with transaction volumes hovering at low levels of 100-1500 tons. Due to shipment obstacles, local refining inventories have been affected, and prices have continued to decline. After that, low-end transactions have improved to some extent, and it is expected that weekend transactions may turn warm up.
Downstream: As of July 18th, the cyclohexanone market in South China has been consolidating and operating. Downstream purchases are made as needed, and the supply of spot goods in the market is stable. Currently, the cyclohexanone market is mainly operating steadily.
3、 Future forecast
The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the downstream demand for cyclohexane is generally moderate, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will remain stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has risen this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 831 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 851 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.41% and a year-on-year increase of 4.55%. On July 10th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 773 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 44.79% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 29.26% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained strong this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 790-880 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 830-920 yuan/ton in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 2700-2800 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. From the perspective of the Shandong region, the prices of liquid alkali purchased by major downstream enterprises have increased, and the prices of liquid alkali in the region have risen. Alumina is mostly purchased on demand, while non aluminum receiving is mainly purchased on demand.
Business analysts believe that in the near future, caustic soda prices have been operating strongly, and domestic downstream demand is still acceptable, supporting the firm operation of caustic soda prices. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a strong operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 30th to July 4th, the price of MTBE first rose from 5097 yuan/ton and then fell to 5132 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.69% during the period, a month on month increase of 2.14%, and a year-on-year decrease of 21.79%. The domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations, which are consolidated with changes in the crude oil market.

In terms of cost and crude oil, the rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the suspension of Iran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and concerns about geopolitical instability in the market. Adding to this, the traditional peak consumption season in the United States is still ongoing, providing support for oil prices. As of July 3rd, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the September contract was $68.80 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, as summer approaches and businesses travel more, there is still some positive support for gasoline terminal demand. The MTBE demand side is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side: After the construction of Huayi Chemical Plant, the resource supply will further increase. Maoming Shihua has plans to start construction, while observing the production time of some new plants such as Kaiyi New Materials. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on July 3rd, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by 0.86 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at 659.4-661.4 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $0.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $858.49-858.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $9.98/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $691-691.36/ton (195.11-195.21 cents/gallon).
Future forecast: Currently, raw material prices are operating at a high level, and cost pressure remains significant. After the construction of Huayi Chemical Plant, the supply of resources has further increased. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market situation may weaken and consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30th, the price of isooctanol was 7550 yuan/ton, which has stabilized compared to the price of 7550 yuan/ton on June 1st. In June, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated, with many isooctanol enterprises undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the operating rate of isooctanol equipment, a reduction in isooctanol production, and a decrease in isooctanol supply; Downstream plasticizer companies have seen a decrease in production, leading to a decrease in demand for isooctanol and a double drop in supply and demand. As a result, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and stabilized.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and consolidate
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30th, the DOP price was 8259.17 yuan/ton, fluctuating and consolidating compared to the June 1st DOP price of 8250.83 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.10%. In June, DOP production decreased, and the operating rate of the plasticizer industry dropped below 60%. DOP prices remained stable at a high level, resulting in a decrease in plasticizer production. The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and stabilized, while phthalic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell. The cost support for plasticizers decreased, and plasticizer prices fluctuated and stabilized.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol product, in terms of demand, the equipment operation of plasticizer enterprises has decreased, the production of plasticizers has decreased, the demand for isooctanol is weak, and the support for isooctanol has weakened; In terms of supply, the operating rate of isooctanol enterprises has decreased to about 80%, resulting in a decrease in production and supply of isooctanol. In the future, with reduced supply and weak demand, the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and consolidate.

The asphalt market in Shandong started to rise and then fell. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of Jingbo Heavy Duty Asphalt # 70 in Shandong Province was 3675 yuan/ton on June 23, and the ex factory price in Shandong Province was 3670 yuan/ton on June 27. The mid week market price rose to 3760 yuan/ton.

The international geopolitical situation had a significant impact during the week, with crude oil fluctuating rapidly. The cost of asphalt market was greatly affected, and the asphalt market also followed the fluctuations of crude oil. In terms of demand, compared to the same period in previous years, prices are at a low level, and overall demand is slightly flat. The purchasing enthusiasm of middle and downstream users is average. With the arrival of the southern rainy season, the market is facing seasonal downward pressure.
From the perspective of Business Society, the international situation is unstable, and we will continue to pay attention to the impact of changes in crude oil costs on the asphalt market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall trend of the domestic PTA spot market in June showed a fluctuating upward trend. As of June 29th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 5084 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.4% from the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, PTA maintenance units were successively restarted, and the supply continued to increase. However, crude oil remained strong, and PTA slightly fell. In the middle of the month, crude oil prices rose significantly, boosting PTA prices. In the latter half of the year, crude oil experienced a sharp decline, and the PTA market followed suit.

Looking at the future, in terms of supply, the current industry operating rate is around 78%, and there are plans to restart in the future, which will increase supply.
The crude oil market has experienced significant fluctuations in oil prices due to the situation in the Middle East. The current geopolitical situation has significantly eased, and market concerns have been alleviated. Therefore, support for oil prices has weakened, but there are still many uncertainties. As of June 26th, the settlement price of international crude oil futures for WTI crude oil futures in the United States in August was $65.24 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in August was $67.73 per barrel.
The downstream polyester industry is experiencing a decline in load, and some short fiber factories plan to reduce production and undergo maintenance after July. It is expected that the industry’s supply will significantly decline. Terminal textiles have entered the off-season of consumption, with insufficient order follow-up. In addition, recent fluctuations in raw material prices have led to relatively cautious procurement, maintaining a focus on essential needs procurement.
Business analysts believe that the market is still concerned about the fragility of the geopolitical situation, insufficient cost support, and weak supply and demand fundamentals under the traditional consumption off-season. Therefore, the PTA market will mainly consolidate weakly in July.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in June, the aniline market first rose and then stabilized, with the mainstream domestic price reaching 7700-7900 yuan/ton as of the 20th. Recently, the market has been affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with crude oil soaring and pure benzene on the production raw material side experiencing a wide increase. Under the linkage of prices, the price of aniline has risen. After the rise, downstream demand entered the market, and aniline prices stabilized.

On the cost side: International oil prices have strengthened due to macroeconomic favorable conditions and geopolitical deterioration, with crude oil prices fluctuating widely. Pure benzene production has rebounded, and the supply is relatively wide. The pure benzene market has followed the trend of crude oil prices to rise widely and then fluctuated slightly.
Market forecast: In the short term, the raw material pure benzene will maintain a high volatility trend, while aniline will move smoothly with little inventory pressure. It is expected that aniline will maintain a high volatility trend in the short term.