1、 Price data

As of September 25, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha mainstream was 8476.67 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from 8486.67 yuan/ton on September 19. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 8400-8600 yuan/ton.

As of September 25, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run naphtha mainstream was 8332.50 yuan/ton, down 0.03% from 8335.00 yuan/ton on September 19. The actual transaction price of local straight run naphtha was about 8200-8400 yuan/ton.

On September 25, the naphtha commodity index was 104.62, unchanged from yesterday, 13.99% lower than the peak of 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle, and 147.68% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell this week, and the refinery just needed to purchase. Affected by the bad news of the gasoline and diesel market, the terminal ethylene cracking demand was weak, and the market was in a wait-and-see mood. The refinery reduced the price and shipped.

Upstream: The international crude oil price fluctuated and fell. The boots of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase landed at 75 basis points. In addition, the repeated epidemic situation depressed the demand for crude oil, and the international oil price trend declined. As of the week ended September 16, US crude oil inventory increased by 1.1 million barrels to 4307.7 million barrels, and analysts expected an increase of 2.2 million barrels. EIA reports that the crude oil inventory of Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery place of NYMEX crude oil futures, increased by 343000 barrels. In addition, China’s crude oil imports fell sharply in August compared with the same period last year, which depressed market confidence. The control brought about by the epidemic repeatedly dragged down oil demand, and international oil prices fell.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of the business community, toluene rose slightly this week, with the price at 7660 yuan/ton on September 19 and 7690 yuan/ton on September 25, up 0.39%. Mixed xylene fell slightly this week, with the price at 8120 yuan/ton on September 19 and 8080 yuan/ton on September 25, down 0.49%. In terms of PX market, the market price of paraxylene was stable this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9000 yuan/ton.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the energy analysts of the business society, the international crude oil price fluctuated and fell this week. The cost support of the naphtha market was limited. Affected by the bad news in the gasoline and diesel markets, the terminal ethylene cracking demand was weak, the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the pre holiday stock expectation was weakened. The local refining naphtha market price fell. It is expected that the local refining naphtha will continue to decline in the near future.

This week (9.19-23), the domestic polysilicon market continued to maintain a stable pattern, the domestic supply price remained at the level last week, and the import supply declined slightly, with the range of 2000-3000 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business community, the weekly rise and fall of the single-crystal dense material with the model of the first solar energy level is 0. The mainstream range reaches RMB 298-30900/ton.

Silicon wafers continued to be stable this week, and the quotations of major manufacturers were not adjusted in September. The operating rate of domestic silicon material manufacturers has been improved successively. Up to now, two sets of devices of domestic silicon material manufacturers have been shut down. It is estimated that they will recover in October, and the supply will increase significantly compared with the previous month. In general, silicon material supply is still in short supply due to the continuous follow-up of downstream demand. In terms of terminals, the price of battery chips was mainly stable this week, with little change in the operating rate. The operating rate of components was flat last week, slightly higher than that at the beginning of the month. The price rose tentatively. The construction of large domestic surface power stations was accelerated, and the demand side grew steadily. Europe is short of natural gas, and the transition from traditional energy to new energy will increase the demand for domestic components.

Future market forecast: polysilicon analysts from the business community believe that the current silicon material supply has significantly improved compared with that in August. The maintenance devices will resume work in succession next month. Later supply is expected to increase, and the supply pressure will continue to ease. At the same time, it will also suppress the high price of silicon material. However, considering that the downstream demand is only increasing, the supply and demand will continue to maintain a tight balance. Based on comprehensive consideration, it is expected that the price of silicon material will continue to operate at a high level.

1、 Price trend

Take the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process with large sales volume in the domestic market as an example. According to the bulk list data of the business community, the price of titanium dioxide was basically stable this week, with the average price of domestic titanium dioxide at 16350 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market price is basically stable this week. At present, the domestic titanium dioxide market is relatively light, and the downstream just needs to purchase, so you can take it when you need it. The traders were more cautious in taking the goods and kept their prices stable. Up to now, most domestic rutile titanium dioxide quotations are between 15500-17000 yuan/ton; The quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is between 14500-15500 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region decreased slightly this week. The overall market turnover is light, and the downstream titanium dioxide market is poor. The purchasers are cautious and mainly wait and see. Small and medium-sized miners are under great pressure, and the overall market is weak and stable. Up to now, the quotation excluding tax of 38-42 grade titanium ore is about 1420-1450 yuan/ton, the quotation excluding tax of 46 grade 10 grade titanium ore is about 2040-2100 yuan/ton, and the quotation of 47 grade 20 grade titanium ore is about 2300-2400 yuan/ton. In the short term, there are few deals in the titanium concentrate market, and the overall market is weak. The actual transaction price is discussed separately.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price kept stable this week, with the average price of sulfuric acid at 228 yuan/ton. The upstream sulfur market has been consolidated at a low level recently, with average cost support. Downstream market of hydrofluoric acid and ammonium sulfate declined slightly, and downstream customers were not enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid.

3、 Future market forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst of the business agency believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market price is basically stable this week. The domestic titanium dioxide market was cold and the atmosphere was weak. The market of raw titanium concentrate is weak, and the market price of sulfuric acid is stable. Downstream demand is less than expected. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will operate weakly and stably in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be discussed separately.

On September 21, the mainstream quotation range of 1 # tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 185500-187500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 186500 yuan/ton, 2500 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day.

On the night of the 20th, the dollar rose to a nearly 20 year high, and the market expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by more than 75 basis points. The crude oil market closed down by more than 1%. Affected by the macro data, the metal rose and fell by half in the night market, with Lunxi leading the rise by 1% and Shanghai Tin leading the rise by 1.76% in the internal market. In the morning of the 21st, Shanghai Wuxi continued its rising trend. As of the closing of the 21st, the main contract 2210 of Shanghai Wuxi closed at 180960 yuan/ton, up 2.66%.

In terms of fundamentals, the overall quotation of manufacturers is still stable in the near future, the supply and demand are basically unchanged, and the pattern of weak supply and demand is still maintained. The operating rate of major manufacturers is generally stable. The domestic tin output increased significantly in August, the source of import goods increased significantly, the market quotation of import goods increased, and the domestic tin ingot supply was relatively loose as a whole. Consumption in downstream demand is slightly weak, and the willingness to prepare goods before the festival is generally low. The downstream still maintains on-demand procurement, and the market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. From a comprehensive perspective, the tin market is still weak in both supply and demand, and the downstream demand is weak. It is hard to support the tin price. It is expected that the rising momentum of tin price is insufficient, and it is expected that the tin price is likely to bear more pressure in the future market.

This week, the spot tin market price (9.9-9.16) had a volatile market trend and fell as a whole. The average price of the domestic market was 186360 yuan/ton last weekend and 183610 yuan/ton this weekend, down 1.48%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price will continue to weaken after April 2022, with only a small increase in some weeks, and the overall downward trend.

Futures market situation this week

Variety., closing price., compared with the same period of last week., inventory (ton)., compared with last week’s inventory change (ton)

Shanghai Tin, 176250 yuan/ton, – 8710 yuan/ton, 1992, – 157

London tin, 21130 dollars/ton, – 215 dollars/ton, 4855.,+45

In terms of futures market, the trend of Lunxi this week was weak as a whole, and the price was volatile, with a weekly drop of about 1.6%. The trend of Shanghai and Wuxi was volatile this week, with an overall weekly decline of about 1.4%. Macroscopically, the US inflation data this week was higher than expected. The Fed meeting was generally hawkish. The metal market was under pressure, and tin prices were dragged down.

The main range of the spot market this week was 178000-189000 yuan/ton. The price did not change much compared with last week, but decreased slightly. The premium of the spot market remained at a high level. The traders had a strong attitude towards price fixing. The overall market trading was limited. The downstream still maintained demand based procurement. The actual transaction situation was slightly light. In terms of fundamentals, the manufacturer’s quotation this week is still stable as a whole, and the supply and demand are basically unchanged, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand. The operating rate of major manufacturers is generally stable this week. The domestic tin output increased significantly in August, the source of import goods increased significantly, the market quotation of import goods increased, and the domestic tin ingot supply was relatively loose as a whole. Consumption in downstream demand is slightly weak, and the willingness to prepare goods before the festival is generally low. The downstream still maintains on-demand procurement, and the market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. From a comprehensive perspective, the tin market is still weak in both supply and demand, and the downstream demand is weak. It is hard to support the tin price. It is expected that the rising momentum of tin price is insufficient, and it is expected that the tin price is likely to bear more pressure in the future market.

According to the data of the business community, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of September 18 was 6660.00 yuan/ton (tax included), down 0.45% from the price of 6690.00 yuan/ton on September 12.

On September 18, the fuel oil commodity index was 134.89, unchanged from yesterday, 0.60% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 135.70 (2022-06-21), and 192.73% higher than the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The international crude oil price rose in shock, and the cost of ship fuel market was supported. According to the business community, as of September 18, the self raised low sulfur price of 180cst fuel oil in the Zhoushan area of CNGC was 6650 yuan/ton, and the self raised low sulfur price of 120cst fuel oil was 6750 yuan/ton; The price of 180cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNOOC Shanghai is 6600 yuan/ton, and the price of 120cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6700 yuan/ton.

The international crude oil price fluctuated. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve may significantly increase interest rates, making the dollar stronger again, depressing the oil price valuation. In addition, the global economic recession is expected to continue to depress oil prices. The good news on the supply side of the oil market and the bad news on the demand side will continue to play a game. In particular, the trend of geopolitical tension is becoming more serious, and the oil price is subject to more interference factors, which will further aggravate the shock of the oil market.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): as of the week of September 14, the fuel oil inventory in Singapore had dropped by 500000 barrels to 19.4 million barrels; Medium distillate oil inventory rose by 300000 barrels to 8.5 million barrels; The light distillate oil inventory decreased by 100000 barrels to 15.6 million barrels.

Future forecast: the international crude oil price will fluctuate this week, and the raw material price in the domestic ship fuel market will decline; Affected by typhoon, some ports have limited oil supply. There is a strong wait-and-see mood in the ship fuel market, and the market transaction is cautious, with the purchase of just needed goods as the main. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6600-6700 yuan/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6700-6800 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will decline slightly in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffins 52 was 6166 yuan/ton on September 13, and 6166 yuan/ton on September 16. The price of chlorinated paraffins 52 was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of chlorinated paraffin rose this week, and the domestic operating rate was about 60%. After the festival, the prices of raw material liquid chlorine and liquid wax rose, and the cost support was favorable. Equipment maintenance of some manufacturers reduced the on-site supply. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the market turnover has increased. The price of chlorinated paraffins in Anhui increased by about 300/ton, while the price of chlorinated paraffins in Shandong decreased. Some manufacturers and dealers sold at a stable price for shipment. As of September 16, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Anhui was about 6600 yuan/ton, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Northeast China was about 5800 yuan/ton, and the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Shandong was about 6100 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the market price of liquid wax continued to rise this week by 0.73%. Liquid wax market changes with crude oil, and the overall market is running well. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the market price of liquid chlorine continued to rise this week by 2.38%. The market demand increased and the transaction atmosphere was good.

3、 Future market forecast

The chlorinated paraffin analysts of the business community believe that the current market of chlorinated paraffin raw materials is stronger, and the cost side is strongly supported. The downstream market of chlorinated paraffins is good. The raw materials are purchased on demand, and the market turnover is increased. Most chlorinated paraffins enterprises sell at a fixed price. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will rise steadily in the short term.

Zinc price fell on September 15

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the zinc price fell on September 15, and the zinc market fell back. On September 15, the average market price of zinc ingots in East China was 25406 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from 25426 yuan/ton on the previous trading day, up 11.38% year on year.

Key points of analysis

The data released by Shanghai Futures Exchange shows that Shanghai’s zinc inventory has continued to decline recently. On September 15, the zinc ingot inventory decreased to 31712 tons, a new low since February. The inventory of the zinc market dropped significantly, and the downward pressure of the zinc market was weakened due to the strong upward momentum.

Future market forecast

The domestic zinc stock declined, the London zinc stock declined, the zinc supply declined slightly, and the zinc price is expected to rise slightly in the future.

Chart of nitric acid market price trend

According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of nitric acid was 2266 yuan/ton on September 14, and 2200 yuan/ton on September 9, up 3.03%.

The upstream liquid ammonia rose 8.36% this week (9.1-9.14). Downstream aniline rose 11.59%, TDI rose 8.25%, potassium nitrate fell 1.84%, ammonium nitrate prices fell 4.61%, supported by the cost of liquid ammonia. Downstream aniline and TDI prices rose, which was good for the rise of nitric acid prices. Supported by the demand for goods preparation before the festival, nitric acid analysts in the business community predicted that the price of nitric acid might rise.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic rare earth market stopped falling recently, and the price trend of some light rare earth markets rose slightly. On September 12, the rare earth index was 587 points, unchanged from yesterday, 41.71% lower than the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and 116.61% higher than the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015.

Since September 7, the domestic light rare earth market price has ended its three-month decline, and the market price has ushered in a small rise. The domestic prices of neodymium metal, praseodymium metal, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide all have a small upward trend. On September 13, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal increased by 2500 yuan / ton to 722500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide increased by 2500 yuan / ton to 595000 yuan / ton, and the price of neodymium oxide was 655000 yuan / ton, The price of neodymium metal is 815000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium metal is 885000 yuan / ton, and the price of praseodymium oxide is 635000 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic light rare earth market has stopped falling and rebounded.

The price of the domestic rare earth market has risen slightly. Recently, the number of new downstream orders has increased. In addition, the rare earth industry is gradually entering the peak season, and some downstream businesses are stocking up. However, due to repeated outbreaks in some regions, the wait-and-see mood of magnetic material enterprises remains, and the increase in demand is not very obvious. The increase in rare earth market is limited. Due to the impact on the production of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some epidemic areas, the supply side was slightly strained, and the market price rose slightly. Most of the magnetic material enterprises are distributed in Zhejiang. Recently, the sales of downstream new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles have increased month on month, the demand for spot procurement has increased, and the prices in the market have stopped falling and rebounded. Downstream demand has improved and procurement demand has risen slightly. However, the active offer of the separated enterprises on the market is still not high, the traders’ offer is active, the wait-and-see mood on the market remains, and the light rare earth market has risen slightly.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is fairly good. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 2.395 million and 2.383 million respectively in August 2022, with year-on-year growth of 38.3% and 32.1%, both higher than that of last month. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in August were 691000 and 666000, up 1.2 times and 1 times respectively year-on-year, and the monthly production and sales reached a new record. The production and sales of automobiles have increased significantly. Recently, the demand in the new energy field is still supported. The price of the domestic light rare earth market has been supported to a certain extent, and the price trend has risen.

In addition, the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 met expectations, and the industry pattern continued to optimize. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the total amount control indicators for the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2022. In 2022, the total control indicators of the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 109200 tons and 104800 tons respectively. In 2022, the total control indicators of the first two batches of rare earth mining, smelting and separation were 210000 tons and 202000 tons, respectively, with a significant year-on-year increase. However, the demand gap for rare earth still exists, and the situation of supply exceeding demand has not improved.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earths have achieved sustainable development. Due to repeated epidemics in some regions, downstream procurement is limited. However, the orders of magnetic material enterprises have increased recently, and some enterprises have gradually started replenishment. In addition, with the start of rare earth peak season, business community analyst Chen Ling expects the rare earth market to rise.