According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of the noon of October 18, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 10066.67 yuan/ton, 2.27% lower than that on Friday (October 14), 0.98% lower than that on September 18, and 11.85% higher than that on a two month cycle.

From the perspective of supply and demand: in the near future, the supply side devices are mainly stable, the demand side performance is flat, the downstream bearish mentality is dominant, the procurement is cautious and wait-and-see, and the low volume follow-up is dominant. The factory shipments are flat, the inventory is gradually accumulated, and the price of propylene oxide is under pressure.

From the perspective of cost: raw propylene, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has dropped significantly recently. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene on October 17 was 7436.60, a decrease of 2.41% compared with October 1 (7620.60). Recently, the cost faced with the propylene oxide market has weakened.

To sum up, in the near future, the price of propylene as raw material is weak, coupled with insufficient demand side follow-up, which has dragged down the price of propylene oxide market. At present, the cost support is average, the inventory is under pressure, and the downstream is cautious. It is expected that the propylene oxide market will be weak in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

The domestic methanol market in East China fell back. Before the National Day, due to the availability of goods before the festival and the tight supply and demand in some regions, the domestic methanol market price rose sharply, and the port price broke the 3000 yuan/ton mark. With the increase of arrival and inventory in some regions, as well as the consumption of pre holiday stock in downstream areas after the holiday, the methanol price market has turned “upside down”. After the festival, the domestic methanol market continued to decline unilaterally, and the quotations of manufacturers were also lowered for many times. The market atmosphere was “calm”.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 3246 yuan/ton to 2812 yuan/ton from October 8 to 17. During the cycle, the price dropped by 13.37%, with a month on month increase of 1.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.87%.

As of the closing of October 17, the methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had been volatile. The MA2301 contract was opened at 2730 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2746 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2654 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2667 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton from the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, the position of the MA2301 contract was 1.1945 million hands, up 129100 hands from the previous trading day.

Summary of methanol market prices by regions as of October 17:

Region, price

Qinghai region, no quotation

Shanxi, 2720 yuan/ton

Liaoning, about 2830-2900 yuan/ton

Fujian, 2850-2880 yuan/ton

In the two lakes region, about 3150-3185 yuan/ton

Anhui Province, about 2900-2950 yuan/ton

Henan Province, about 2740-2750 yuan/ton

The price of methanol industrial chain products rose and fell, the price of natural gas, the upstream product of methanol, fell, the average price of coal continued to rise, and the cost of methanol was well supported; Shandong has the largest increase in formaldehyde price among downstream products; Among related products, Shandong’s ethylene glycol price rose the most.

In terms of external market, as of October 14, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 369.50-370.50 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton. US Gulf Methanol Market closed at 108.75-109.75 cents/gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 351.50-352.50 euros/ton, up 0.75 euros/ton.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 369.50-370.50 USD/ton, 5 USD/ton

Europe, America, Gulf of America, 108.75-109.75 cents/gallon, 0 cents/gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 351.50-352.50 euros/ton, 0.75 euros/ton

The firm coal price will continue to support the production cost of enterprises. At the same time, the supply will be further increased. Methanol analysts of the business community predict that the domestic methanol market may be dominated.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of titanium dioxide will be lowered this week. The average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 16350 yuan/ton on Friday, and 16016.67 yuan/ton on Thursday, with a 2.04% price reduction rate within the week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market was lowered this week. The domestic titanium dioxide market is generally traded, and the market will wait and see after the festival. The overall market of titanium dioxide is light, the downstream demand is poor, and the buying enthusiasm is limited. The traders are more cautious in taking the goods and wait and see. Up to now, the quotation of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is 15000-17500 yuan/ton; The price of anatase titanium dioxide is about 14500 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi stopped falling and rebounded this week. At present, the construction of Panzhihua Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. is at a low level. In addition, the outsourcing of Panzhihua Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. to recycle the titanium ore in the market, the spot market of titanium ore is tight, and the price rebounds accordingly. Up to now, the price excluding tax of 38-42 grade titanium ore is about 1360-1400 yuan/ton, the price excluding tax of 46 grade 10 grade titanium ore is about 1950-2080 yuan/ton, and the price of 47 grade 20 grade titanium ore is about 2300-2400 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is relatively strong, and the actual transaction price is discussed separately.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers rose this week. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market rose sharply this week, with the quotation rising from 296 yuan/ton on Friday to 406 yuan/ton on Friday, up 37.16%. The upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, the titanium dioxide market was consolidated at a low level, and the downstream customers were generally motivated to purchase sulfuric acid.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the titanium dioxide analyst of the business agency, the price of domestic titanium dioxide market will be lowered this week, and the domestic market is in general. The price of titanium concentrate as raw material rebounded, the price of sulfuric acid rose sharply, and the cost support was strong. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will stop falling and stabilize in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 10, 2022, the reference average ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was 7200 yuan/ton, which was increased by 334 yuan/ton, or 4.85%, compared with September 30, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 6866 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that after the National Day in October, the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate has been running upward as a whole. The main driving factors for the upward shift of the center of gravity of dimethyl carbonate come from the following three aspects:

First, on the demand side, the downstream demand side performed well after the festival, the terminal market replenished goods actively, and the market inquiry atmosphere was more active.

Second, on the supply side, during the National Day holiday, the accumulated inventory of dimethyl carbonate plants was relatively low, and the supply pressure of plants after the festival was low, and some businesses were reluctant to sell.

Third, in terms of cost, the overall high level of propylene oxide market after the festival gives dimethyl carbonate cost support.

Based on the above three aspects of support, the dimethyl carbonate market ushered in a strong high market after the festival. At present, as of October 10, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 7000-7300 yuan/ton, and the post holiday price has increased by 100-400 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the overall propylene oxide market rose slightly in September. In October, the propylene oxide market was weak and slightly volatile after the festival. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene oxide was 9766 yuan/ton on October 9, a decrease of 3.20% compared with October 1.

Future trend analysis

At present, the market trading and investment atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate is good, the supply and demand transmission is smooth, and the overall optimism of the industry is mostly in the future market. The dimethyl carbonate data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly operate stably, moderately and strongly. It is said that in the fourth quarter, the domestic dimethyl carbonate capacity will increase. With the increase of supply, there is a risk that the market will fall from a high level in the long run, The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

On September 29, the crude benzol commodity index was 106.91, down 3.63 points from yesterday, down 18.91% from the cycle’s highest point of 131.84 (2013-01-28), and up 250.07% from the lowest point of 30.54 on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In September 2022, the crude benzene market rose first and then fell. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene was 6658 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 6665 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.11%.

Crude oil: In September, crude oil continued to play a long short game, with strong negative market conditions and wide price shocks. The increase in interest rates in Europe and the United States has raised the market’s concern about economic recession and the pressure on crude oil demand, putting pressure on oil prices; However, European winter energy supply risks remain, supporting oil prices. As of September 28, Brent fell by 7.17 dollars/barrel, or 7.43%; WTI fell 7.4 dollars/barrel, or 8.26%.

Macroscopically, the continuous strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on oil prices. In addition, the risk of economic recession is aggravated by the sharp interest rate increase of the global central bank, which then depresses the fuel demand. In addition, as the refinery entered the autumn overhaul period, the decline in operating rate led to the accumulation of crude oil, and many factors triggered a panic decline in the oil market.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date., Adjusted Price., Adjusted Amount

September 6., 7750.,+150

September 20., 7850.,+100

In September 2022, Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene twice, with a cumulative increase of 250 yuan/ton. As of the 30th, 7850 yuan/ton had been implemented.

Other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7980 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7953 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan/ton, Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8050 yuan/ton.

Industrial chain: looking at the trend chart in September, it can be found that the industrial chain was in an upward trend in most of the whole September, only the price fell at the end of the month. In the middle and first ten days of the month, supported by the double positive effects of crude oil and styrene, pure benzene price shocks acted as the main driver, driving the overall industry chain to improve. The price of hydrogenated benzene in the upstream of crude benzene rose along with that of pure benzene, and the bidding price of crude benzene was continuously raised due to the boost. After entering the middle and late ten days, the crude oil market fell broadly, and the cost support began to weaken. In terms of downstream trend, styrene rose broadly in September and then fell back, while most other commodities rose in price. There was a general demand for goods in the downstream near the small and long holidays. The market procurement was active, and the improvement of the demand side drove pure benzene higher. As the price of pure benzene continues to rise, the market is increasingly afraid of high spirits. After the decline of both styrene and crude oil, the strength of pure benzene support falls back and the price drops. In terms of ports, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports rose to 64600 tons at the beginning of the month. Later, affected by typhoon weather, the import cargo ships were delayed, and the inventory at the end of the month again fell to a low level. Near the end of the month, the bad news from crude oil and styrene dominated, while the downstream stock preparation was basically ended, the market transaction weakened, and the price fell.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

Looking at the crude benzol trend chart in September, it can be found that the crude benzol market was in an upward trend for most of the whole September, only the price fell at the end of the month. Since late August, the crude benzol market has risen continuously, and Shandong has risen to 7170 yuan/ton from 6520 yuan/ton in late August, with a cumulative increase of 650 yuan/ton. At the end of September, the bidding price in Shandong fell back to 6810 yuan/ton. In the early stage, crude benzol prices continued to rise due to the multiple positive effects of pre holiday stock, favorable industrial chain and positive market trading. However, after the end of September, the pre holiday goods preparation was basically completed, and the crude oil and styrene were weak. The negative factors still occupied the market. The crude benzol price was significantly reduced in the last bidding in September, and some enterprises were underrated in the bidding at the end of the month. In terms of supply: Coking enterprises have raised and lowered their operating rates in a round this month, and the overall operating rate has not changed much. Crude benzol supply is generally acceptable. In the future market, crude oil rose at the end of the month. In terms of pure benzene inventory, the port may continue to accumulate stock in the near future. The downstream performance is fair in the near future. There is an expectation that new capacity will be put into production in the downstream. In general, the fundamental support remains. It is expected that the price of crude benzene will be stable, moderate and strong after the festival. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of international crude oil market, external market, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics, demand changes, etc. on the trend of the industrial chain.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, glycine in China rebounded at the bottom this week. The price of industrial glycine at the beginning of the week was 12666 yuan/ton, and that at the weekend was 13333 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.26%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of glycine rose sharply this week. As of the press release, the mainstream quotation of industrial glycine market was 13500-14000 yuan/ton, the price rebounded at the bottom, and the market inquiry was active. The market atmosphere began to improve. It is reported that this price increase is mainly affected by two aspects: first, the overall market is not high, inventory is low, supply continues to tighten, price is low, and corporate profitability is poor; Second, downstream demand has improved, and glycine has risen along the trend stimulated by the demand for goods preparation before the festival.

3、 Future market forecast

Glycine analysts from the business community believe that due to the low price in the early stage, the production and sales of glycine market are weak. In the case of low supply, it is expected that the glycine price in the market will be firm and upward in the short term.

Commodity index: According to the monitoring of the business community, the natural rubber commodity index on September 29 was 36.67, up 0.03 points from yesterday, down 63.33% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01) in the cycle, and up 34.42% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: Natural rubber mainstream price trend in late September 2022

Commodity market: According to the monitoring of the business agency, the spot market of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in the East China market in September was first up and then down, and the trend was weak due to the callback at the end of the month; Among them, East China reported 12120 yuan/ton on the 21st and 12310 yuan/ton on the 30th, with a ten day increase of 1.57%.

Figure 3: Weekly K Histogram of Natural Rubber Market in 2022

Industry: According to the monitoring of the business community, the supply of natural rubber continued to be strong in the last ten days, the inventory was sufficient and the import volume continued to increase. Affected by the weak tire orders and the sufficient spot inventory, the purchase demand of natural rubber in the last ten days of the market did not show the “golden ninth” peak season in previous years. Although the natural rubber market rose slightly in the last ten days, the market did not continue, fell rapidly, and the market stabilized before the festival.

Figure 4: Trend Chart of International Crude Oil Mainstream Prices in Recent March 2022

Macroscopically, the international crude oil futures continued to fall sharply in late September, with a one-day drop of nearly 10% during the period. The market’s concern about the economic downturn was growing. The oil price fell continuously against the background of the continued deterioration of geopolitics. Since the third quarter, the WTI has fallen by more than 20%. According to the analysis, the oil price will still seek a balance between the supply shortage and the demand recession expectation in the future, and the superposition of interest rate increase cycle, geopolitical tension and other factors will make the oil market more volatile.

Figure 5: Comparison Chart of Annual Spot Market Trend of Natural Rubber from 2020 to 2022

Future market forecast: considering the recent downstream tire orders and purchase demand status, it is unlikely that natural rubber will rise significantly without major extreme weather impact and downstream demand improvement, and the probability will remain volatile.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1291 yuan/ton on September 1, and 1430 yuan/ton on September 29. The price of ammonium sulfate rose 10.71% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate rose this month. At the beginning of September, ammonium sulfate began to rise continuously. The downstream operating rate of ammonium sulfate has increased, and the demand for ammonium sulfate has increased. There are many export inquiries, and the ammonium sulfate market is running well. The urea market rose, which was beneficial to the ammonium sulfate market. Under the influence of multiple favorable factors, the bidding price of ammonium sulfate in the coking plant has risen significantly, and domestic enterprises have sold at a fixed price. On September 13, ammonium sulfate began to slightly decline and consolidate until the end of the month. The market price of ammonium sulfate fluctuated slightly, and the price of each region rose and fell in tandem. Downstream purchase on demand, still resistant to high prices, mainly cautious operation. As of September 29, the main factory quotation of coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong was about 1380 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei was about 1370 yuan/ton. Domestic ammonium sulfate, the factory quotation in Shandong is 1380-1540 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart from July 4, 2022 to September 25, 2022, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate has increased a lot in the cycle. The maximum increase was 9.96% in the week of August 29, and the maximum decrease was -7.52% in the week of July 11.

This month, the downstream compound fertilizer market was stable and running well, the operating rate was increased, and the purchase of ammonium sulfate was mainly needed. In the compound fertilizer market, the wheat fertilizer is mainly sold, the demand for raw materials increases, and the trading volume on the market increases. The urea market stabilized after rising this month, which was beneficial to the ammonium sulfate market.

3、 Future market forecast

Ammonium sulfate analysts from the business community believe that the market of ammonium sulfate has been weak recently, the bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate has been lowered slightly, and the internal grade ammonium sulfate has temporarily stabilized. As the National Day holiday approaches, the demand for goods in the lower reaches turns weak, and there is still resistance to high prices. It is expected that the ammonium sulfate market will fluctuate in a narrow range and the price will fall slightly in the short term.

The price of aluminum fluoride rose slightly in September

According to the data of the business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride rose slightly in September, and the aluminum fluoride market rose. As of September 28, the average quotation price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 10950 yuan/ton, up 2.82% from 10650 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. The operating rate of aluminum fluoride enterprises is low, many aluminum fluoride enterprises stop production for maintenance, the inventory of aluminum fluoride enterprises is low, and the supply of aluminum fluoride is tight.

The price of raw materials rose in September

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of fluorite rose slightly in September, up 2.03%; In September, the price of hydrofluoric acid fell slightly, by 2.78%. In September, the price of aluminum fluoride raw materials rose and fell, the overall cost of aluminum fluoride rose slightly, and the support for aluminum fluoride growth remained.

Downstream market improved

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 28, the price of cryolite was 7750 yuan/ton, up 0.98% from the price of 7675 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. The cost pressure of cryolite enterprises was high, the manufacturer’s inventory was low, the cryolite market was high and firm, the cryolite price rose, and aluminum fluoride was supported by a certain rise.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of electrolytic aluminum rose first and then fell in September, and the overall electrolytic aluminum market remained strong. In late August, Sichuan electrolytic aluminum enterprises started to recover. In September, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises limited power supply and reduced production. Under the background of the Jinjiuyinshi market, the demand for electrolytic aluminum picked up slightly. However, the downstream demand was limited due to the weak macro-economy, insufficient support for the rise of electrolytic aluminum, and limited impetus for the rise of aluminum fluoride.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts from the aluminum fluoride industry of the business community believed that: the price of aluminum fluoride raw materials stabilized in September, and the aluminum fluoride cost support was insufficient; The downstream cryolite price rose slightly, the demand for electrolytic aluminum was limited, and the downstream support for aluminum fluoride was limited. However, the aluminum fluoride enterprises started at a low level, and the inventory of aluminum fluoride enterprises was at a low level. The supply of aluminum fluoride was relatively tight, and the price of aluminum fluoride rose in shock. In the future, the supply is still tight, and the aluminum fluoride price is expected to rise slightly in the future.

The trichloromethane market rose sharply in September. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of September 27, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 4000 yuan/ton, up 41.59% from 2825 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the factory price of trichloromethane apron was at a high level.

In September, the supply of chloroform was basically in a tight situation, supporting the rising price of chloroform.

In September, the cost of the trichloromethane industry chain rose, and the demand side increased steadily. Both upstream and downstream of the industry chain supported trichloromethane.

The price of raw materials is higher, and the cost of chloroform is supported: in September, the market of raw material methanol rose sharply, and the support for chloroform is strong. According to the business community, as of September 27, the price of methanol was 2840 yuan/ton, up 12.34% from 2528 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The domestic methanol market rose in shock. As an energy product, coal is in continuous shortage, and methanol has strong cost support.

In the golden nine and silver ten seasons, the construction of downstream chloroform has been steadily improved, which has certain support for chloroform: after the end of August and the beginning of September, the construction of downstream refrigerant has been improved; Since September, the commencement of downstream printing and dyeing industry has gradually increased from 50% in early August to 7.5%; The start of the ink and paint industry also increased slightly; The start of the pharmaceutical industry was basically stable.

Future market forecast: Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business community believe that although the supply side increased slightly at the end of the month, the cost side and demand side still have some support, which will continue to support chloroform. It is expected that the price of chloroform will be strong in the short term. The chloroform market has also accumulated a certain degree of risk after this round of surge, which is expected to be adjusted after the festival.