Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the POM market rose this week, and the spot prices of various brands rose. As of August 4, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business club was about 18566.67 yuan / ton, up or down +2.77% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, Shandong formaldehyde market fluctuated this week, with spot prices rising and falling. The price of upstream methanol is high and low, and the support for formaldehyde is general. The downstream plate plant is not well started, the demand continues to be weak, the overall inventory is high, and the stock removal is slow. It is expected that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fall in the short term.

The upstream formaldehyde market is volatile and has risen recently. POM cost side support is acceptable. In terms of industry load, recently, domestic POM enterprises have a high load and increased competition. POM rose in the short term due to the small rise in the upstream, but the inventory of manufacturers and midstream was high, the operating rate of terminal enterprises was generally restricted by profits or orders, and the operating rate narrowed, the consumption of POM in the field was slow, and the off-season market was difficult to change. Terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing, mainly taking small orders, and have a heavy wait-and-see mood. There is a certain contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the spot price is under pressure and stagnant. The mentality of merchants is general, and the offer is mainly to follow the enterprise or follow the market.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market rose this week, while the upstream formaldehyde market rose in the second half of the week, and POM cost support was acceptable. The load of POM industry is high, and the support of supply side is poor. The consumption of downstream enterprises is weak, and there is no large-scale replenishment in procurement. It is expected that in the short term, the rise of POM price may be blocked due to the contradiction between supply and demand.

In July, the domestic MTBE market fell significantly due to the low-level fluctuation of crude oil. According to the data of business agency, the price of MTBE at the beginning of the month was 8610 yuan / ton, and the market price of MTBE at the end of the month was 7330 yuan / ton. The price fell 14.87% in the month, up 26.74% year-on-year.

Trend chart of average price of domestic MTBE producers in Shandong in July 2022:

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top three commodities were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, concentrated in chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic MTBE market rebounded at a high level. The specific reasons are: crude oil was first suppressed and then increased, but the price is still at a high level, giving the market a certain psychological support; Gasoline prices have also followed the upward trend, with a slight increase in capacity utilization and an appropriate increase in demand for raw materials; Outlet support.

In the middle of August, the domestic MTBE market fell significantly, with crude oil prices rising first and then declining, and finally fell sharply compared with last week, which was a bad market mentality; The gasoline market entered a downward trend, lacking interest in high priced MTBE raw materials, and the overall transaction was poor.

In late August, the domestic MTBE market fell significantly, and the crude oil price fell sharply, and fell below the 100 yuan mark again, giving the market a heavy blow; The external market of MTBE continued to decline, and the export demand decreased; The initial overhaul factories have resumed operation one after another, and the overall supply has increased with it, highlighting the sales pressure of businesses.

At the end of the month, the MTBE market was suppressed first and then increased. Affected by the sharp decline in crude oil, the market has a strong pessimistic atmosphere. However, as the price fell to a low level, and the rebound of crude oil stopped falling, some downstream businesses replenished at a moderate amount of bargain hunting, business sales improved, and actively followed the rise to explore the market. The price is reduced by about 50 yuan / ton.

In terms of external trading, as of the close of July 28, the closing price of Asian MTBE market increased by $22.50 / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $1089.99-1091.99 / ton. The closing price of MTBE in Europe fell by $1.50 / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at $1514.74-1515.24 / ton. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States decreased by 21.94 dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB closed at 1342.03-1342.39 dollars / ton (378.04-378.14 cents / gallon).

Region, country, closing price, rise and fall

Asia, FOB Singapore, 1089.99-1091.99 US dollars / ton, 22.5 US dollars / ton

Europe, FOB ara., 1514.74-1515.24 dollars / ton., -1.5 dollars / ton

United States, FOB Gulf, 1342.03-1342.39 dollars / ton, -21.94 dollars / ton

For enterprises, as of July 29, Shandong Chengtai new material MTBE quoted 7350 yuan / ton. The 200000 t / a isomerization unit started normally. Shidashenghua MTBE is stable, with a quotation of 7350 yuan / ton. The 200000 t / a isomerization unit started normally. The 400000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit of Shandong Shenchi Chemical Co., Ltd. operates smoothly, MTBE is reduced by 100 yuan / ton, and the external quotation is 7300 yuan / ton. The MTBE quotation of Lihua Yijin Petrochemical was reduced by 100 yuan / ton to 7400 yuan / ton. 125000 T / a isomerization MTBE unit operates normally. The 350000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit of Dongming Qianhai chemical started normally, and the MTBE quotation was reduced by 150 yuan / ton to 7250 yuan / ton.

Market demand is difficult to be greatly improved, and sales pressure remains in some regions. Business agency MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market may still decline in the short term.

According to the sample data monitored by business club, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI at the beginning of the month was 18400 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 16160 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 12.17% during the month and a year-on-year decrease of 19.00%.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top three commodities were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, concentrated in chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of July 29:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

In South China, 16000 yuan / ton, 15800-15900 yuan / ton

In East China, 16000 yuan / ton, 15800-15900 yuan / ton

16000-16200 yuan / ton in North China and Shandong, 15800-16000 yuan / ton nearby

At the beginning of the month, the domestic aggregate MDI market was depressed, and the follow-up of actual orders was very limited, and the trading atmosphere in the trade market was cold. The monthly listing of major production enterprises has been announced one after another. The listing price was mostly stable in July. Traders were generally bearish on the aftermarket, and the market was sold at a low price.

In the first ten days of the month, the domestic aggregate MDI market fell significantly, the price fell broadly, the actual order of the terminal contributed to difficulties, the trade atmosphere weakened, and the low price was heard more. The stalemate and weak market continued, and the actual order of the terminal contributed to difficulties.

In the middle of August, the domestic aggregate MDI market continued to decline, and traders adjusted prices sharply for many times, bearish on the future market. At present, the sluggish demand is still the main reason for limiting the market price of MDI.

In late August, the domestic aggregate MDI market atmosphere was still poor. Although towards the end of the month, manufacturers had taken measures to reduce supply and improve the market, insufficient demand has always restricted the rise of the domestic aggregate MDI market.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: crude oil fell continuously, and the support of external news was weak. Downstream purchasing turned weak, and the price of pure benzene fell.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of Business Club:

In terms of aniline, domestic aniline fell weakly, pure benzene fell weakly, and aniline cost support weakened. Aniline downstream delivery sentiment is general, and the factory delivery is less than expected.

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of Business Club:

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua 1.1 million T / a device operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; Shanghai kesichuang 600000 T / a unit operates normally; Shanghai Huntsman 380000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the overhaul to June to July; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the overhaul to June to July; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; Dongcao Ruian 80000 T / a unit operates normally.

The MDI device has a multi storage maintenance plan, and the supply is expected to shrink. However, the downstream demand is restricted for a long time. The MDI analysts of the business community aggregate expect that the domestic aggregate MDI market is dominated by low-level consolidation.

On August 1, the mainstream quotation range of 1# tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 200000-202000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 201000 yuan / ton, an increase of 6500 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

The trend of metals in the night market closed up across the board, with Lun nickel leading the rise of 9.4%, Lun tin rising by 2.57%, and the metals in the inner market also closed up across the board, with Shanghai nickel leading the rise of 7.34%, and Shanghai tin rising by 4.87%. The performance of tin in this rise is weaker than that in the early stage, the overall rise range is limited, the follow-up is not obvious, and the basic trend is volatile. It is mainly affected by the trend of fundamentals.

In terms of supply, smelters stopped production for maintenance in July, and the overall output is expected to decline in July. However, there is a start-up plan for the early maintenance device in August, and the market is expected to be loose in the future. In terms of inventory data, the overall de stocking situation of the market during the maintenance period is not ideal. However, the downstream demand of the demand side has not changed much recently. The start-up of tin solder enterprises is still low as a whole. Although it has improved, it is difficult to boost the tin price as a whole. On the whole, the tin price is still under pressure, so the performance of tin in this rise is moderate. In the future, the fundamental performance is weak, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, and the spot trading performance is general. It is expected that there will be some pressure on the future upward trend of tin price, and it is expected that the tin price will remain wide and volatile under the pattern of weak supply and demand.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 29, the average price of domestic general transparent premium PMMA was 16925.00 yuan / ton. In May, PMMA maintained a stable operation, with the price rising by 1.8% compared with the beginning of the month. In May, the PMMA market rose narrowly, and the market operated stronger.

In the first ten days of July, as of July 12, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA this week was 16750.00 yuan / ton. The price of this week was narrow and strong. Compared with the same period last week, the price increased by 0.75%. The price fluctuation range was small. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton. The overall PMMA market price remained stable, the focus of negotiation was stable, the price range of this week was small, and the overall market supply and demand was balanced, This week, the average price of PMMA of domestic general transparent superior products was 16875.00 yuan / ton. The overall market operated smoothly, and the price change was not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton. Merchants actively shipped orders to give up profits. Compared with last week, the price of PMMA remained unchanged. The price of PMMA was stable, the overall supply and demand was balanced, and the purchase was just needed. At present, the focus of negotiation was stable, and the supply side was normal.

In mid July, as of July 19, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA was 16775.00 yuan / ton. The price of this week was narrow and strong. Compared with the same period last week, the price was stable, the price fluctuation range was small, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton, the overall PMMA market price remained stable, the focus of negotiation was stable, the price range of this week was small, and the overall market supply and demand was balanced, This week, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA is 16775.00 yuan / ton. The overall market is mainly stable, and the price change is not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains about 16500 yuan / ton. Merchants actively ship and give up orders. Compared with last week, the price of PMMA remains unchanged. The price of PMMA is mainly stable, the overall supply and demand is balanced, and just need to purchase. At present, the focus of negotiation is stable, and the supply side is normal.

In late July, as of July 27, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA was 16775.00 yuan / ton. The price of this week was narrow and strong. Compared with the same period last week, the price was stable, the price fluctuation range was small, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained around 16500 yuan / ton, the overall PMMA market price remained stable, the focus of negotiation was stable, the price range of this week was small, and the overall market supply and demand was balanced, This week, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA is 16775.00 yuan / ton. The overall market is mainly stable, and the price change is not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains about 16500 yuan / ton. Merchants actively ship and give up orders. Compared with last week, the price of PMMA remains unchanged. The price of PMMA is mainly stable, the overall supply and demand is balanced, and just need to purchase. At present, the focus of negotiation is stable, and the supply side is normal.

Rubber and plastic index: on July 29, the rubber and plastic index was 716 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.45% from the highest point 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 35.61% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

PMMA analysts of business agency believe that the white carbon black market is expected to operate smoothly in August, with a small fluctuation range. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

In July, the domestic EVA market price continued to be weak as a whole, and the market fell significantly. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 23400.00 yuan / ton on July 1 and 20800.00 yuan / ton on July 28, with a decrease of 11.11% during the month and an increase of 15.99% over the same period last year.

As of July 28, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

Product, manufacturer, model, ex factory price

Eva., Yanshan Petrochemical, 18j3, 19700 yuan / ton

Eva., Beijing Organic, y2022, 20000 yuan / ton

EVA, BASF Yangtze, v5110j, 22700 yuan / ton

In July, the domestic EVA market was difficult to find positive, and the price fell broadly. Most of the ex factory quotations of petrochemical enterprises were reduced, leading the decline. In the month, in terms of cost, the international crude oil price fluctuated and fell, and the vinyl acetate and ethylene markets were weak, bringing some bad news to the market. In terms of demand, the terminal demand is weak, the downstream manufacturers are cautious, the willingness to purchase is still low, the market trading atmosphere is limited, the merchants’ mentality is poor, and the quotation mostly follows the behavior owner.

At present, the negative impact of costs is obvious. The ex factory quotations of petrochemical enterprises have fallen one after another. In addition, the consumption of market supply is slow, the downstream market entry atmosphere is limited, and the mentality of most operators is pessimistic. The quotations of merchants follow the downward trend, and the market is difficult to find good. It is expected that the domestic EVA market price in August will still have downward space.

As of July 27, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 3900.00 yuan / ton, down 3.31% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, down 59.66% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, and up 28.57% compared with the same period last year, according to the bulk list data of business society.

In July, the market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid fell slightly. In the first half of the month, the cost side support was limited, and low-cost sources of goods appeared frequently in the market. After the price fell to about 3500 yuan / ton, it hit the bottom and rebounded. The market transaction was dominated by rigid demand, and the price rose slightly and operated smoothly. In the second half of the month, the cost side support was ok, the enterprise mainly shipped normally, the downstream maintained rigid demand procurement, the inquiry atmosphere was general, the market trend was balanced, the transaction was mild and orderly, and the focus of the market negotiation of industrial grade 85% formic acid was mainly stable.

In terms of cost: upstream caustic soda, the caustic soda enterprises flexibly adjusted their quotation on the 27th, but they mainly took a wait-and-see attitude, and comprehensively expected to maintain the consolidation trend in the later period; Upstream liquid ammonia, on the 27th, the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong fell, and some traders’ offers fell, with a range of around 100 yuan; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price temporarily stabilized on July 27; Upstream methanol, according to the bulk list data of business society, on July 26, the reference price of methanol (period) was 2476.25, a decrease of 1.74% compared with July 1 (2520.00).

According to the formic acid analysts of business society, the current cost impact is limited, and the downstream is mostly on-demand procurement, with average on-site trading. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may be stable.

Paraformaldehyde market price trend chart

On July 1, the average production price of paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 5350 yuan / ton, and on July 26, the average production price of paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 5266 yuan / ton, down 1.56%.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol producers was 2665 yuan / ton on July 1, and 2566 yuan / ton on July 26, down 3.94%. On July 1, the average producer price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1270 yuan / ton, and on July 26, the average producer price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1206 yuan / ton, down 4.99%.

Methanol prices fell in July, and paraformaldehyde was in the off-season. Business community polyoxymethylene analysts predict that polyoxymethylene may be dominated by weak operation.

1、 Price summary on July 22:

Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company quoted 7750 yuan / ton, Qilu Petrochemical Company quoted 7650 yuan / ton,

Yangba quoted 7650 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 7900 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 7700 yuan / ton,

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, the EU adjusted its sanctions against Russia, which will allow Russian state-owned companies to ship oil to third countries. The tight supply is expected to ease slightly, and the oil price fell.

Today, Sinopec reduced toluene in South China by 250 yuan / ton.

Crude oil fell for three consecutive days, with weak external news and loose cost support. Domestic demand for toluene is sluggish, and negotiations continue to decline.

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of July 22, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 1083 yuan / ton. Compared with July 1 (the reference price of phosphorus ore was 1066 yuan / ton), the price increased by 17 yuan / ton, or 1.56%. Compared with June 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock is 910 yuan / ton), the price increased by 173 yuan / ton, or 19.05%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that since July, the domestic medium and high-end phosphorus ore market has continued to operate at a high level. At the beginning of July, the market price of 30% grade phosphate rock and phosphate ore basically broke through the 1000 yuan level, the on-site supply remained tight, and the operators were reluctant to sell. Large mining enterprises were mainly for their own use, and there were basically few external sales. The on-site circulation spot was insufficient, and the market continued to operate strongly. On July 11, some mining enterprises in Guizhou and Guangxi raised the market price of medium and high-end grade phosphate ore again, by about 30-50 yuan / ton, The high-end market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou exceeded 1150 yuan / ton, and then the phosphorus ore market as a whole operated steadily until late July. At present, as of July 22, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 1050-1150 yuan / ton, which is discussed in detail, and the market price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 900-980 yuan / ton, which is discussed in detail.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, since July (7.1-7.21), the domestic yellow phosphorus market has been operating downward as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 33000 yuan / ton on July 21, a decrease of 12.23% compared with July 1 (37600 yuan / ton).

Prediction and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the domestic phosphorus ore market continues to be in tight supply, with mines mainly receiving pre orders, and some mining enterprises bidding for sales. Insiders said that the tight supply situation in the phosphorus ore market will be greatly improved in the short term, and the tension may continue until the end of the year. The phosphorus ore datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market is mainly high-level consolidation and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific changes in supply and demand.