Supply side: Tighten first and then loosen, gradually releasing pressure. Early October: Partial device maintenance/load reduction, low social inventory, strong willingness of traders to raise prices, and temporary tight supply. In the second half of the year, with the concentrated resumption of early maintenance equipment and the release of new production capacity, coupled with an increase in the amount of imported goods arriving at the port, the market supply pressure has significantly increased, which has continued to suppress prices. At the end of the month, some devices entered maintenance again, coupled with the low prices in the early stage suppressing the production enthusiasm of some enterprises, the supply pressure slightly eased, supporting a slight rebound in prices.
Demand side: Overall weak. Downstream industries such as plastic weaving, agricultural film, and packaging have weak order follow-up, and the operating rate of enterprises remains low. Procurement is mainly based on on-demand use and procurement, lacking large-scale stocking power. Although the low prices at the end of the month have stimulated some essential demand replenishment, they have not formed a sustained increase in demand, and overall it is still difficult to effectively drive prices.
Cost aspect: In the first half of the year, international crude oil prices fluctuated upwards, providing strong cost support for the market and driving up prices. In the second half of the year, crude oil experienced a pullback due to macroeconomic concerns and inventory data, leading to loose cost support and weak supply and demand, accelerating the decline in PE prices. At the end of the month, crude oil rebounded slightly, and the cost side showed marginal recovery, driving PE prices to recover at a low level.
Short term: There are still expectations of resuming production on the supply side, and there is no significant increase on the demand side. The fluctuation of crude oil on the cost side remains the core variable, and prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile pattern.

Industries such as dyes and synthetic fibers are also facing cost pressures, with profit margins being compressed, which may affect the end consumer market.
Market outlook: Short term strong continuation, long-term downside risk
The sulfuric acid market remained strong in the short term in April, with acid plants in the main production areas still undergoing maintenance, tight sulfur supply, stable chemical demand, and expectations of price increases. In the long run, there is a risk of a pullback: some maintenance facilities will resume in April, leading to an increase in supply; Downstream inventory accumulation and demand overdraft, if the geopolitical situation eases and sulfur prices decrease, coupled with the off-season demand in the second quarter, prices may fluctuate or rebound at a high level.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 6940 yuan/ton on February 28th, and 6890 yuan/ton on February 1st. The domestic phosphoric acid market price has increased by 0.73% this month.
2、 Market analysis
This month, the domestic phosphoric acid market has shown a strong upward trend. In the first half of this month, the price of phosphoric acid in the market fluctuated narrowly. The price fluctuation of raw material yellow phosphorus is not significant, and there is no significant change in the cost side. The phosphoric acid market has stable trading and downstream urgent procurement needs. At the end of this month, the market price of phosphoric acid began to rise. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has strengthened, and cost support has increased. The phosphoric acid market has followed the rise of the raw material market.
market conditions
As of February 28th, the factory price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6900-7250 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 6900-7200 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 6950-7500 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost
Raw material yellow phosphorus market. This month, the yellow phosphorus market is mainly experiencing an upward trend. In the first half of this year, the yellow phosphorus market experienced narrow fluctuations and the trading atmosphere was average. At the end of this month, the supply of yellow phosphorus in the market is tight, and market trading is heating up. The transaction price of yellow phosphorus in the market is starting to strengthen, and manufacturers are mainly reluctant to sell.
3、 Future forecast
The phosphate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the price trend of the phosphate market has been on the rise recently. The raw material market is strengthening, the cost side support is increasing, and the optimistic attitude of the phosphoric acid market is increasing. It is expected that the short-term domestic phosphoric acid market will mainly operate with a strong trend.

1、 Price trend
Overall: First fell, then rebounded, and weakened again at the end of the month; The monthly average price is 6230 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 1.27%.
phase division
At the beginning of the month (2.1-2.5): Rapid downward trend. After the holiday, raw materials rebounded, cost support weakened, and futures fluctuated downward; Spot price increased from 6324 to 6068 yuan/ton (2.2 yuan/day, down 256 yuan).
Mid month (2.6-2.23): Shockingly rebounded, raw material PTA/MEG strengthened, and costs rose; Futures rebounded and spot prices gradually recovered to the range of 6100-6270 yuan/ton.
At the end of the month (2.24-2.27), the futures rose 136 yuan to 6266 yuan/ton due to the expansion of rising, falling, and weakening; Subsequently, crude oil weakened and downstream resumption of work fell short of expectations, causing spot prices to fall from 6330-6450 yuan/ton.
2、 Core market analysis
1. Cost side (dominant factor)
Crude oil under pressure: OPEC’s expected increase in production and falling oil prices directly suppress PTA/MEG.
• Weakening of raw materials: PTA/MEG prices have declined, bottle chip cost support has weakened, and factory profits have shrunk.
Transmission pathway: crude oil → PX → PTA/MEG → bottle flakes, with significant downward transmission of short-term costs.
2. Supply side
• Operating rate: Approximately 66% per month, with some equipment undergoing maintenance (such as CR Jiangyin and Sanfangxiang), resulting in tight supply.
• Inventory: Low factory inventory provides limited support for prices.
New production capacity: The growth rate will slow down in 2026 (about 6.25%), and the supply and demand will tighten in the medium term.
3. Demand side (maximum drag)
Slow resumption of work: The resumption rate of downstream industries such as soft drinks and edible oils is only 50% -60%, lower than the same period in previous years.
• Prudent procurement: Downstream focus on digesting pre holiday inventory, with few new orders and only replenishing inventory for essential small orders.
• Low production and sales: The production and sales of 2.27 bottle tablets are only 30% (far below the 70% profit and loss line), and the factory is under great pressure to ship.
Peak season expectation: Traditional peak season in mid to late March, but there is no clear order signal in the short term.
4. Futures and market sentiment
Futures led the decline in spot prices, with a weaker basis and a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
The price difference of the quotation has widened (50-100 yuan/ton), and transactions are mostly low-priced goods.
3、 Market forecast (early March)
Trend judgment: Weakly oscillating consolidation, difficult to have a significant rebound.
• Core focus:
Crude oil and PTA/MEG price trends
◦ Downstream resumption progress (after Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) or at the inflection point)
Production and sales of bottle tablets and inventory turnover speed
• Risk points: Continuous decline in crude oil, downstream resumption of work less than expected, further weakening of futures.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda is weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 628 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 622 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96% and a year-on-year decrease of 38.72%. On February 5th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 797 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 43.07% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 33.28% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 550-650 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Zhejiang region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 850-970 yuan/ton in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 2200-2300 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. This week, the supply of caustic soda is still in a loose state, and there is no obvious destocking by enterprises. The overall load of liquid alkali in Shandong is still high, and the profit of the chlor alkali industry is not high, which forms a support on the cost side. The enthusiasm for downstream alumina entering the market has been average recently, while in the north, due to weather conditions and a gradual decrease in stock during the Spring Festival, the market is still in a stalemate, and more caustic soda is purchased on demand. It is expected that the alumina market will experience weak fluctuations in the later period.
Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the caustic soda prices have been weak this week, and downstream buyers in China have been purchasing on demand recently. There is no positive support for the Shandong market, and demand has not substantially improved. The quotation for orders outside Shandong Province has basically ended, and now the main focus is on executing long-term orders. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may continue to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall price of bromine has risen this month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 36100 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 41400 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 14.68% and an increase of 89.91% compared to the same period last year. On December 30th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 125.61, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 48.77% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 113.19% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This week, the price of bromine in Shandong region remained firm. The factory quotation in Shandong region is based on 39000-44000 yuan/ton, with the mainstream price around 41500 yuan/ton. Inventory replenishment is limited, and supply continues to tighten. However, downstream companies are observing and the market trading is flat. Downstream demand is generally average. The atmosphere of bromine wait-and-see remains, and the market supply and demand are in a tight game, resulting in weak actual transactions. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been rising, with an average market price of 3661 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 4210 yuan/ton at the end of the month, representing a 15% increase and a 147.99% increase compared to the same period last year.
Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to be strong this month, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to be strong this month. Bromine supply is tight in the near future, and imports are limited. However, downstream purchases are mostly based on demand, continuing the trend of rigid procurement. The overall market trading atmosphere is weak. It is expected that bromine may continue to consolidate and operate after a rise in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

Product Market Trends
From the perspective of market development in 2025, the overall market situation of titanium dioxide shows a trend of first rising and then falling. In the first quarter, the inventory of manufacturers was low, and the prices of upstream titanium concentrate and sulfuric acid rose, resulting in price increases. In the second quarter, the foreign trade market experienced a downturn, with an increase in on-site inventory and a gradual weakening of the market. In the third quarter, India cancelled its decision to impose anti-dumping duties on imported titanium dioxide from China in September, which is favorable for the recent titanium dioxide market, which is stable and rising. In the fourth quarter, the situation of new order transactions was poor, and the titanium dioxide market was sluggish.
In the first half of the year, the market for titanium dioxide first rose and then fell, resulting in an overall decline in prices. The cumulative decline from January to June was 5.23%. As of the end of June, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide is mostly between 13300-14200 yuan/ton; Sharp titanium type costs around 11700-12300 yuan/ton.
In the second half of the year, the supply and demand sides of the titanium dioxide market remained deadlocked and watched, with little fluctuation in market prices. Overall, prices slightly increased. The cumulative increase from July to December is 0.15%. As of the end of December, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide is mostly between 13300-14300 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 12000-12500 yuan/ton.
Current situation of titanium dioxide in 2025 and expectations for 2026
Import and export aspects
According to customs data, the total import volume of titanium dioxide from January to November 2025 was only 67800 tons, a significant decrease of 19.88% year-on-year. Among them, chlorination products are still the main import force, with a cumulative import of 40800 tons from January to November, a year-on-year decrease of 27.49%, accounting for 60.2% of the total import volume. The import volume of sulfuric acid products is relatively small, with a cumulative import of 27000 tons from January to November, a slight decrease of 4.77% year-on-year.
The significant decline in the import volume of chlorination method indicates that in the high-end product field that relied on imports in the past, the investment of domestic chlorination method production capacity and technological progress are effectively filling the market gap.
According to customs data, from January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of titanium dioxide in China was about 1.6451 million tons, a decrease of 5.63% compared to the same period last year, a decrease of about 98200 tons. Among them, the chloride process titanium dioxide performed well, with a cumulative export of 322300 tons from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 1.29%. Sulfuric acid titanium dioxide still dominates but performs weakly, with a cumulative export of 1.3228 million tons from January to November, a year-on-year decrease of 7.18%, accounting for 80.4% of the total export volume and still the absolute mainstay.
This export pattern of “total volume reduction and structural optimization” clearly indicates that China’s titanium dioxide industry is in a critical stage of transformation from “winning by quantity” to “breaking through by quality”.
In terms of production capacity and output

According to publicly available information, the titanium dioxide industry is undergoing a deep adjustment in 2025, with continuous expansion of production capacity. In 2025, China’s titanium dioxide production capacity will be 6.217 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.62% compared to 2024. The main regions with increased production capacity are Inner Mongolia and Anhui; By 2025, the top three regions in China’s production capacity will have Sichuan accounting for 19%, Shandong accounting for 13%, and Henan accounting for 10%.
According to public information, in November 2025, China’s titanium dioxide production was 400400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.36%. The cumulative production of titanium dioxide from January to November 2025 was 4.3504 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.72%, and the production decreased by about 31500 tons.
International giants shut down and went bankrupt, Venator Germany. In September 2025, Venator Germany filed for bankruptcy. Its 50000 tons/year chlorination production capacity in Germany and the previously shut down 80000 tons/year production capacity in Italy led to a global supply contraction and the transfer of international orders to China.
In terms of downstream terminal real estate
From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 7859.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%; Among them, residential investment was 6043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%.
From January to November, the construction area of real estate development enterprises’ houses was 656066 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. Among them, the construction area of residential buildings was 457.51 million square meters, a decrease of 10.0%. The newly started construction area of houses is 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%. Among them, the newly started residential area was 391.89 million square meters, a decrease of 19.9%. The completed area of the house is 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. Among them, the completed residential area was 281.05 million square meters, a decrease of 20.1%.
Summary and prediction
In 2025, the Chinese titanium dioxide industry will face challenges such as overcapacity, international trade frictions, fluctuations in raw material prices, and environmental pressures. This year is also a key turning point for titanium dioxide to shift from scale expansion to high-quality development. The titanium dioxide industry is undergoing deep adjustments and upgrades driven by policies, markets, and technology.
Looking ahead to 2026, the titanium dioxide industry will present a new cycle of “policy driven, technology driven, and market driven”. The market size will shift from “quantity growth” to “quality improvement”, and the supply and demand pattern is expected to improve. The transformation towards high-end, green, and intelligent will accelerate.
1、 Policy driven: Green Transformation and Capacity Optimization
Environmental policies will continue to be strengthened to promote the industry’s transformation towards low-carbon and circular industries. For example, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment requires that new projects must adopt the chlorination process or the sulfuric acid process with a complete circular economy system, and specifies that by 2025, the industry’s energy efficiency benchmark level production capacity will reach 30%, and by 2030, the energy efficiency benchmark line will be fully achieved.

2、 Technology driven: breakthroughs in chlorination process and high-end products
With the increasingly strict environmental policies, chlorination method may become the main production trend in the future. As of 2025, the proportion of titanium dioxide production capacity produced by chlorination method in China has exceeded 35%, and it is expected to reach 60% by 2030. Nano scale titanium dioxide has achieved technological breakthroughs in the field of photocatalytic degradation of VOCs. Technological innovation has become the core driving force for the industry to transition from scale expansion to high-quality development.
3、 Market driven: Emerging demand and upgrading of export structure
The market center of gravity is further tilted inward: Against the backdrop of pressure on export volume and continuous reduction in imports, the importance of the domestic market is becoming increasingly prominent. Traditional fields such as coatings and plastics have stable demand, while emerging fields such as new energy and photovoltaics are growing rapidly. The usage of titanium dioxide in the field of new energy vehicles is increasing by 25% annually, and the demand for photovoltaic backsheet is increasing by 27% annually. Industry competition will focus more on domestic market share, service responsiveness, and product customization level. Enterprises need to deeply cultivate the domestic market while breaking through overseas markets with high-end products.
4、 Competitive Landscape: Structural Adjustment and Globalization Layout
The titanium dioxide industry has formed a “one super, many strong” pattern, with leading enterprises building a closed loop of the entire industry chain and small and medium-sized enterprises accelerating their exit. The demand growth in traditional fields is weak, and emerging fields have become new growth points. Market diversification accelerates overseas layout, and Longbai Group, as an industry leader, guarantees raw material supply through overseas mergers and acquisitions, long-term cooperative mining, and builds a global unified sales network. It is expected that the overall structure of the titanium dioxide industry will continue to adjust in the coming years to adapt to market changes and policy guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 12th, the price of DOP was 7150 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.82% compared to 7209.16 yuan/ton on December 5th. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, while the cost of DOP has decreased; The operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises has decreased, the operating rate has dropped to 62%, and the DOP production has decreased. The cost of DOP has decreased, coupled with a reduction in supply, causing the price of plasticizers to fall from high levels.
The production of plasticizer DOP manufacturers has decreased
This week, there has been an increase in maintenance for DOP manufacturers, resulting in a decrease in their operating load and a 62% operating rate. The DOP production this week is 28000 tons, which is temporarily stable compared to last week, but has decreased compared to last month. The DOP production has decreased, leading to a decrease in DOP supply and a weakening of the upward momentum for DOP.
The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 12th, the price of isooctanol was 7033.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% from the high of 7066.67 yuan/ton on December 5th. This week, the maintenance of isooctanol equipment in enterprises has decreased, and the operating load of isooctanol enterprises has slightly increased. The operating rate of isooctanol has increased to 75%, and the supply of isooctanol is sufficient; The price of propylene has risen strongly, and the cost support of isooctanol is significant; The supply of isooctanol is sufficient, coupled with cost support, and the driving force for the price increase of isooctanol still exists. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of plasticizers has decreased. The downward pressure on DOP still exists, and the upward support has weakened.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the high price of isooctanol has fallen, and the support for the increase in plasticizer DOP costs has weakened; In terms of supply, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is weak and stable, the production of plasticizers is stable, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient. In the future, with cost reduction and limited supply and demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will remain weak and consolidate.